Zapad-2025: New Military Exercises Heighten Tensions Along NATO’s Eastern Flank

Russia and Belarus commenced joint military exercises on Friday, marking the first Zapad drills since the beginning of Russia’s extensive invasion of Ukraine.

Named Zapad-2025, these exercises, running until September 16, aim to evaluate the capacities of both nations to counter an enemy assault, reclaim lost territories, and safeguard the borders of what they refer to as their Union State, according to the defense ministries of Russia and Belarus.

The Russian authorities stated that the drills will unfold in two phases: the initial phase will concentrate on defense and coordination, while the latter will focus on recovering territory and defeating enemy forces. The exercises are taking place at military ranges in Belarus and Russia, in addition to the Baltic and Barents Seas.

Belarus has characterized the operations as defensive, confined to its eastern territories. Officials in Minsk initially indicated that 13,000 troops would participate in January, but later revised that estimate to approximately 6,500, significantly down from the 200,000 personnel involved in the Zapad-2021 exercises.

Moscow has also announced that it has invited observers from defense and economic groups led by Russia and China.

These drills are happening amidst escalating tensions along NATO’s eastern border, with Poland accusing Russia this week of intentionally sending drones into its airspace. In retaliation for this breach, Poland and NATO deployed fighter jets to intercept and down the drones, marking the first instance of the Western military alliance engaging Russian targets since the onset of the 2022 invasion.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitri Peskov informed reporters on Thursday that the Zapad-2025 exercises had been organized well in advance and were not aimed at «any third nation.»

«This initiative is focused on enhancing military collaboration and practicing coordination between two strategic allies. We will persist in this endeavor, which is no secret to anyone,» Peskov stated.

Furthermore, the exercises coincide with Russia’s deployment of tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus. Minsk announced that the drills will include Russia’s new experimental nuclear-capable missile, referred to as Oreshnik, alongside training for nuclear strikes.

A video released by Russia’s Defense Ministry to commemorate the beginning of Zapad-2025 showcased military operations in various environments, featuring armored vehicles navigating through forests, attack helicopters and bombers in flight, as well as naval vessels and a submarine on the water.

In anticipation of the drills, Poland shut its border with Belarus on Thursday, with Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk labeling the exercises as «highly aggressive.» Poland, Latvia, and Lithuania have imposed restrictions on their airspace near the Russian and Belarusian borders.

Earlier this month and in August, Poland, Latvia, and Lithuania conducted their own military drills, which analysts noted were strategically timed to coincide with Zapad-2025. Approximately 30,000 Polish and allied troops participated in Poland’s exercises, named Iron Defender 2025.