Unpredictable Dynamics: Regional Elections in Russia Amidst the Kremlin’s Control Efforts

This week, approximately 50,000 government positions will be contested across 80 regions of Russia during the country’s fifth round of wartime elections.

Around 55 million Russian citizens are eligible to vote in direct elections, encompassing 19 gubernatorial contests, 11 parliamentary races, and 25 city council elections. Additionally, in Crimea, the Russian-installed authorities will oversee the election for the mayor of the vital port city of Sevastopol.

Most Russians will cast their votes on Sunday, although several regions have opted for a longer voting period, allowing both in-person and online voting over three and two days. Election monitors have repeatedly criticized these extended voting methods for facilitating widespread electoral fraud.

Despite the Kremlin’s efforts to eliminate any remaining political opposition since the onset of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, there remains some level of competitiveness and intrigue within the regional segments of Russia’s political landscape.

As a result, certain contests this week may experience actual competition, breaking from the usual scripted displays of allegiance to the ruling United Russia party that generally characterize elections in Russia.

«Even with prevailing trends in domestic politics, Russia is a vast and diverse nation where elections can manifest in various ways,» wrote electoral analysts Ksenia Smolyakova and Vadim Ternovoy in a recent analysis for the Electoral Atlas project.

«In some areas, political competition has been absent for decades, while in others, a clandestine or even overt rivalry among elites persists, with independent candidates challenging sitting regional leaders,» they noted.

In the Arkhangelsk region in the northwest and the gubernatorial race in Siberia’s Irkutsk region, unpredictable outcomes are anticipated, which is unusual in contemporary Russia.

In Irkutsk, an industrial center in southeastern Siberia, incumbent Igor Kobzev of United Russia is gearing up for a contest against his predecessor from the Communist Party, Sergei Levchenko.

Levchenko made a surprise win in a runoff for governor in 2015, disrupting the federal government’s plans and leading to a prolonged standoff with Moscow.

He was compelled to resign in 2019 following his son’s arrest on bribery charges, which many viewed as a politically motivated strategy to displace him from power.

His resignation led to a large rally in support of Levchenko in Irkutsk, the regional capital.

Kobzev’s term has been fraught with conflicts with local elites, including even members of United Russia.

«Igor Kobzev is nearing a notable record — in the Irkutsk region, only Governor Boris Govorin has previously sought a second term and succeeded. Other governors have not even managed to complete a single term, which highlights the region’s political dynamics,» wrote analysts from Electoral Atlas, labeling the gubernatorial contest as «the most competitive in Russia.»

In Arkhangelsk, Alexander Tsybulsky of United Russia will contend for re-election against Roman Lyabikhov, a real estate tycoon backed by the Communist Party.

Arkhangelsk, located in northern Russia and home to under 1 million residents spread across more than 413,000 square kilometers—slightly less than Sweden—serves as a critical gateway to the Arctic Ocean and is crucial to the Kremlin’s geopolitical ambitions in the Arctic, while also being one of the country’s most politically unstable areas.

In April 2020, Governor Igor Orlov was compelled to resign amid significant protests against a proposed landfill at the Shiyes railway station, which represented one of the few successful anti-government movements in recent years.

Tsybulsky, who previously led the adjacent Nenets autonomous district under Arkhangelsk’s administration, was appointed by Putin to succeed Orlov.

He secured his position by winning the popular vote, but only after Oleg Mandrykin, a Shiyes activist regarded as the primary challenger, was barred from participating by the region’s electoral authorities.

With strong connections in the federal government and ample financial resources, Roman Lyabikhov could pose a serious challenge to Tsybulsky.

As the Deputy Chairman of the State Duma’s Construction and Housing Committee, Lyabikhov’s main drawback is that he is still seen as an outsider by both residents and local elites, despite his regional roots, according to analysts from Electoral Atlas.

«It remains unclear how committed he is to this election campaign; it could simply serve as a prelude to the 2026 State Duma elections,» the analysts noted.

Lyabikhov is currently under investigation for allegations of breaching European sanctions in Germany.

The Central Electoral Commission of Russia has reported that around 1,400 Russian soldiers who participated in the Ukraine conflict have registered as candidates in this month’s regional and local elections, reflecting the Kremlin’s strategy of promoting veterans as part of a «new elite.»

«Participants of the war are undoubtedly becoming more prominent as a political brand,» noted political analyst Andras Toth-Czifra.

«However, this does not imply that they are numerous or that they will achieve election to positions of real power… A vast majority (1,052) of the 1,397 candidates from various parties, carrying the ‘special military operation veteran’ designation, are vying for essentially powerless municipal offices,» Toth-Czifra elaborated.

Data from Novaya Gazeta Europe indicates that dozens of veterans participating in this year’s elections may be associated with war crimes committed in Ukraine.

Furthermore, information released by the independent monitoring group Elections in Detail shows that at least 2,531 candidates in this year’s elections have criminal records in Russia, which is double the number of registered war veterans.

Most of these candidates have been convicted of theft, fraud, hooliganism, drunk driving, and offenses related to bodily harm.

One notable former convict seeking a political position is Tatar politician Ruslan Yusupov, a member of the nationalist Liberal Democratic Party (LDPR).

Yusupov has faced multiple convictions for theft, arbitrary actions, and robbery on three separate occasions and is running for the role of the head of the republic of Tatarstan.

However, his prospect for success appears grim, with incumbent Rustam Minnikhanov expected to secure a substantial victory in his region, known for pervasive electoral irregularities.

This year’s local elections are the first since the passage of a controversial Kremlin-backed law accelerating the dismantling of the two-tier local governance system, which provoked rare anti-government protests in the Altai republic and an opposition campaign within the Krasnoyarsk region.

In regions where officials of the lowest government tier will be elected is the republic of Sakha (Yakutia), an area nearly the size of India yet home to a population of less than 1 million.

Sakha is one of the few Russian regions that opted to retain the two-tier local governance system in defiance of Kremlin directives, highlighting the essential role of local deputies in a region with a sparse population and a predominantly rural demographic.

The region’s vibrant political climate and solidarity with the Altaians could inspire renewed engagement in this year’s local elections.

«During the upcoming elections, don’t heed your bosses or officials… listen to your heart,» urged popular Yakutian actor and film producer Alexei Mikhailov in a viral video shared on social media ahead of the elections.

«We all need to learn to be free individuals… only then the world will recognize us, and our lives will improve,» Mikhailov concluded.