The Algorithmic Battlefield: AIs Role in Modern Warfare

Artificial intelligence has confidently established itself as an indispensable assistant in numerous fields, enhancing people’s quality of life—from automating internet searches to education and healthcare. However, like any technology, it has a darker side.

Recently, engineers from leading corporations have been resigning in protest against the use of their innovations in the defense industry. Musicians are removing entire discographies from streaming platforms that fund military AI, and reports of autonomous drones independently making and executing decisions to eliminate adversaries have ceased to surprise anyone.

In the early 2000s, the American agency DARPA began experimenting with autonomous systems that enabled machines not just to follow orders but to make decisions on the battlefield. The Crusher prototype—a six-ton reconnaissance robot—could navigate rough terrain without human intervention. Meanwhile, tests were being conducted with the automated sniper drone ARSS. These developments laid the groundwork for military AI.

In April 2017, the U.S. Department of Defense launched Project Maven—a comprehensive initiative for combat applications of artificial intelligence. Its goal was to analyze video streams from drones using machine learning algorithms. The program quickly advanced, and within months, the technology was integrated into Predator and Reaper drones.

This sparked shock within the industry: thousands of Google employees—the project’s primary partners—signed a petition against the company’s involvement in military initiatives, leading to many resignations. By 2018, the corporation officially opted not to continue the collaboration.

During the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War, Azerbaijan heavily employed Turkish Bayraktar TB2 drones and Israeli Harop drones, as well as experimental Kargu-2 kamikaze drones. These systems included elements of autonomy, such as targeting, equipment recognition, and tracking of targets. However, the exact level of independent decision-making, including the ability to launch attacks without an operator, remains undisclosed and is a subject of speculation. Nonetheless, this conflict showcased the extensive use of modern AI-based drone technologies.

China is actively advancing its military-civil fusion strategy, which combines efforts from the defense sector, academic institutions, and tech giants. Chinese investments are focusing on developing autonomous systems for monitoring, interception, reconnaissance, and maritime operations. The main goal is to ensure that artificial intelligence becomes not just a weapon but a vital infrastructure for contemporary armed forces.

In Israel, AI has been evolving in parallel. Since 2021, military forces have started to implement AI systems for automating target acquisition in the Gaza Strip. These algorithms analyze vast amounts of data—phone calls, movements, digital activity—and help compile target lists for strikes. As a result, systems like Lavender and Gospel were utilized in large-scale operations in 2023. This drew international criticism, with human rights advocates and the United Nations questioning the legality of strikes conducted based on AI recommendations.

The true war of algorithms began in 2022 with the onset of the full-scale conflict between Russia and Ukraine, marking AI as a genuine participant in warfare. The American company Palantir provided Ukraine with tactical platforms for intelligence analysis and strike planning.

Simultaneously, Ukrainian startups, including Gogol Brain, developed AI modules for drones, including semi-autonomous FPV (first-person view) drones capable of identifying targets and operating in electronic warfare conditions. AI became the core of the reconnaissance-strike system rather than just a supporting tool.

Russia employs Iranian Shahed-136 drones modified for enhanced accuracy and resilience against electronic interference. Some sources report potential integration of AI into these drones, although there is no official confirmation.

By 2025, the world will no longer be debating whether AI will become a weapon—it already has. Taiwan has launched a national program to produce 25,000 FPV drones with AI navigation, creating an integrated network of autonomous defense against potential Chinese invasion.

India also began integrating AI into security systems in response to rising tensions along its borders with China and Pakistan. Since 2022, around 140–145 AI-supported surveillance platforms have been deployed, combining cameras, thermal sensors, radars, and drones for facial recognition.

In just ten years, artificial intelligence has evolved from being an auxiliary software for video analysis to autonomous weaponry capable of conducting reconnaissance, selecting targets, and often pulling the trigger. The world has entered a new era, and this trend is irreversible.

It is nearly impossible to accurately know how much militaries are spending, especially on AI, as most programs are classified. However, publicly available data can outline at least the general parameters.

**Global Military AI Market Overview**

The global market for military AI was valued at $4.8 billion in 2022 and is projected to reach $9.3 billion by 2024. By the most conservative estimates, the growth of the defense AI market is expected to reach $13–19 billion by 2030, with moderate projections suggesting an increase to $25–30 billion. In the case of escalating military conflicts worldwide, the market could potentially grow to $35–40 billion or more. Up to 50% of investments may come from the private sector, including startups, venture funds, and big tech companies.

**United States**

The U.S. currently leads the race for military AI systems, significantly due to the close collaboration between the Pentagon and major tech companies like Palantir, Anduril, Shield AI, and Scale AI, which are awarded billion-dollar contracts. In 2023, the Department of Defense established Task Force Lima to develop and implement generative AI in the military and launched a major program named Replicator.

The Pentagon’s budget for AI technologies has risen from $600 million in 2018 to $1.8 billion in 2024, with overall spending on military AI estimated at $4–6 billion annually.

**China**

Through its military-civil fusion policy, major Chinese AI companies—such as SenseTime, Megvii, and iFlytek—receive government support for research and development. According to CIGI, funding for dual-use technologies in China reached $2.5–3 billion annually in 2023.

China is actively developing autonomous drones (like the Wing Loong and CH-5 series) and underwater unmanned systems. AI fleets are being tested in the South China Sea, including drone swarms. Additionally, AI is being integrated into cyber operations, air defense systems, ISR (Intelligence, Surveillance, Reconnaissance), and predictive analytics.

**Russia**

Russia focuses on mass production and is developing inexpensive drones, AI for munitions, electronic warfare systems, and autonomous navigation. While much of the spending is classified, independent estimates suggest costs of $300–500 million per year as of 2023. The increasing share of AI integration is reflected in the overall military budget growth in Russia (+30% by 2025).

**European Union and United Kingdom**

Since 2021, the EU has invested €1.5 billion into AI, robotics, and autonomy projects through the European Defense Fund. According to the 2025 defense review, AI is identified as one of the most critical components of future military capabilities. Key areas of development include target recognition, GPS-independent navigation, and AI system interoperability among NATO member states. Autonomous systems, threat analysis modules, predictive analytics, and countering enemy drones are being tested. The UK is building defense AI hubs and collaborating closely with the U.S. and Israel. By 2030, full integration of AI into armed forces is anticipated.

**Israel**

Israel is one of the few countries already utilizing AI in real-time combat operations, including integration into air defense systems, drones, and ground complexes. The estimated budget ranges from $0.5 to $1.5 billion annually.

**India**

India is focusing on partnerships with private companies. In 2024, the government announced an investment of $750 million in defense AI by 2027. An AI and robotics center has been established, and drone testing is underway. Additionally, AI platforms for unmanned logistics and reconnaissance in the Himalayas are being explored.

**Ukraine**

In 2022, Ukraine became the first country to extensively apply AI and autonomous technologies in the context of full-scale war. In 2024, the government announced the creation of a defense AI technology center in collaboration with international partners. However, the state budget for these initiatives remains limited (varying estimates suggest $200–400 million annually).

Significant cooperation is also underway with startups and volunteer projects focused on AI analytics, computer vision, and tactical navigation. Despite limited funding, the adaptability, speed of implementation, and field adaptation of the Ukrainian experience make it unique—studied worldwide, including by NATO.

**South Korea**

South Korea is developing predictive threat analytics and military intelligence systems. AI-driven SGR-A1 sentries are already deployed along the border with North Korea, functioning in a semi-automated mode (with human confirmation of targets). Annual spending on defense AI is projected at $500–600 million, with plans to increase that to $700 million by 2025.

**Taiwan**

Taiwan is preparing for possible defense against a Chinese invasion by building infrastructure for mass drone production with AI management. Investments in defense AI range from $600 million to $1 billion annually.

**Drones.** AI is employed for autonomous navigation, target acquisition, threat identification, and coordinating drone swarms. It is utilized in reconnaissance, strike operations, electronic warfare, and surveillance. Drones coordinate with each other like bees—while a single unit can be easily shot down, a swarm is almost invulnerable.

**Autonomous Control Systems for Combat Platforms (land, sea, air).** AI operates tanks, combat UAVs, and unmanned ships.

**Military Logistics and Supply.** Models predict ammunition shortages, optimize supply routes, and manage field repairs. Optimization of routes, predictive maintenance of equipment, and warehouse automation are all employed to enhance responsiveness and reduce costs.

**Intelligence, Surveillance, and Data Analysis.** AI processes satellite, radar, video, and audio data, including information from open sources, applying facial and behavior recognition systems for threat prediction. Satellite data is now analyzed by machine vision and predictive analytics systems, reducing analysis time from hours to seconds.

**Cybersecurity and Cyberwarfare.** Adaptive protection for air defense systems, drones, and communication networks relies on AI for both detecting and executing cyberattacks. AI can hack, defend, and alter data faster than humans, eliminating the need for armies of hackers—models now handle these tasks.

**Command and Control.** AI aids in analyzing operational conditions, recommending actions, and modeling scenarios to support decision-making rather than replacing human involvement.

**Combat Algorithms and Guidance Systems.** Target identification and tracking, ballistic calculations, and assistance in target designation are key functions.

**Simulations and Military Exercises.** AI facilitates personnel training within simulated environments, generating combat scenarios and forecasting enemy actions while also testing new strategies.

**Psychological Operations and Information Warfare.** AI is applied for generating deepfakes, analyzing social media, and targeted disinformation aimed at influencing public opinion and military personnel.

**AI for Soldier Support.** This includes «smart» systems aiding infantry: AI helmets, exoskeletons, and HUD interfaces, along with individual combat companions.

**Satellite Management.** AI is used to monitor objects in space and for autonomous piloting, exemplified by the U.S. SDA system with AI elements.

**Nuclear Early Warning and Automatic Response Systems.** Strategic systems contain AI for analysis with strict limitations on autonomy, functioning only as assistants without full independence due to escalation risks.

**Neural Networks for Diplomacy.** Predicting country reactions to various strikes, threats, or cyberattacks—this new type of AI operates at the intersection of military logic and psychology.

A new world war is already underway, fought through algorithms battling for control over land, sea, air, space, cyberspace, and human consciousness. The key difference is that there are fewer infantry forces but more technological solutions. As time progresses, these decisions will increasingly be made not by generals but by machines.

AI is no longer the future of warfare, but its present. While China and the U.S. lead the race, more countries are entering the field. In 2023 and 2024, the REAIM summits took place in The Hague and Seoul, with over 50 nations signing a declaration on the responsible use of military AI. The United Nations is calling for a ban on fully autonomous systems capable of killing without human involvement.

The pressing question is whether the international community will establish regulations before AI writes the rules itself.