Russias Strategic Neutrality: Navigating the Israel-Iran Conflict without Military Involvement

The conflict between Israel and Iran showed no signs of abating as it entered its fourth day on Monday, with both parties continuing to launch salvos of rockets and drones, resulting in the deaths of hundreds of civilians.

In light of the escalating tensions, Russia’s Foreign Ministry has recommended that its citizens evacuate from both Iran and Israel.

Given Moscow’s relationships with both nations, questions linger about Russia’s potential involvement in the ongoing conflict.

In April, Moscow ratified a strategic partnership with Iran aimed at addressing mutual threats; however, it importantly does not establish a military alliance between the two.

«The signing of the treaty does not equate to the formation of a military alliance with Iran or an obligation for mutual military assistance,» Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Andrei Rudenko stated during a speech to the State Duma at the time.

So, how might Russia choose to support Iran?

Hanna Notte, an expert on Russia and the Middle East at the Center for Nonproliferation Studies, noted on X that Russia is likely to seek involvement through international forums, such as the UN Security Council and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

Notte further observed that Russia would probably continue its role as a mediator in the conflict, aiming to maintain its influence in both regional and global spheres. This past Friday, Vladimir Putin proposed that Russia act as a mediator during his conversation with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Nonetheless, the likelihood of diplomatic success for Russia is uncertain, as Notte mentioned in an earlier Foreign Affairs article: “The instability in the Middle East has become too intense and unpredictable for Moscow to effectively guide in a favorable direction.”

This sentiment was echoed by Ruslan Suleymanov, a non-resident research fellow at the Institute for Development and Diplomacy at ADA University in Baku.

«Russia’s credibility in the region took a hit last year when Putin appeared weak by not supporting Bashar al-Assad against jihadists. Putin has signaled that he is no longer a dependable ally,» Suleymanov told The Moscow Times.

«In practical terms, Russia could support Iran in the UN Security Council, for example. There is no military obligation,» he noted.

One area where Russia likely feels secure is in the supply of Iranian-designed Shahed drones, which are used in attacks on Ukraine.

Nicole Grajewski, a nuclear policy expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace specializing in Russia and Iran, informed The Telegraph that Moscow is now capable of producing up to 2,700 drones monthly without Iranian assistance, a substantial reduction from its earlier reliance on Iran during the initial stages of its invasion of Ukraine.

Suleymanov remarked that the intensifying conflict is unlikely to alter Russia’s relations with Israel, despite Moscow’s strategic partnership with Iran and its criticism of Israeli airstrikes.

«Despite numerous issues and disagreements, Moscow remains interested in Israel,» he explained.

Marianna Belenkaya, a Russian Middle East expert and former commentator for state-run RIA Novosti, also contends that the relationship between Russia and Israel is complex.

She pointed out that the two nations have sustained stable relations even as Russia has increased its cooperation with Hamas in recent years.

«Israel hasn’t severed ties with Russia or imposed sanctions against it,» she said. «Thus, I anticipate that cooperation will persist as it has, at least for the time being.»

Belenkaya also posited that “Russia appears unconcerned about Iran’s nuclear ambitions.”

A prolonged confrontation between Iran and Israel could result in a surge in global energy prices, potentially providing a short-term boost to Russia’s budgetary revenues. Complications in negotiating the Iranian nuclear issue could delay the introduction of Iranian oil and gas into global markets, particularly in Europe.

The rising tensions between Iran and Israel contributed to an increase in the benchmark Brent oil price of nearly 10% on Monday compared to the previous week, moving from $67 per barrel to $73.60 per barrel.

Israeli airstrikes targeting Iranian energy assets, such as gas processing facilities, could hinder Iran’s oil and gas production, which primarily serves neighboring countries like Turkey and Iraq, as well as China.

Although Iran’s contribution to global energy exports is relatively modest, any reduction could still impact global oil prices.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that Iran produced around four million barrels of oil daily in 2023, with exports averaging 1.5 million barrels per day in 2024. Last year, Iranian oil exports constituted only 3.6% of the total global volume.

Traders are not only worried about the Israeli strikes on Iran but also the potential for a broader regional escalation, including disruptions to shipping routes that could affect energy supplies and trade across the region.

Yet, for the Russian economy, which relies heavily on gas and oil revenues for foreign currency and government tax income, such confrontations might yield some short-term economic advantages. Shortages caused by disruptions would help boost Russian oil revenues.

Iran’s share of global oil exports is substantial enough that, even if its shipments were halved, oil prices could rise noticeably, according to Russian energy analyst Igor Yushkov.

In particular, if Iranian supply decreases, China might turn to Russian oil, arriving at a crucial moment as Russia’s oil and gas revenues have been declining due to sanctions and fears of a potential global economic downturn.

A prolonged conflict would also postpone any agreements concerning the Iranian nuclear program that could lead to lifting the energy embargo on Tehran, allowing Iran to supply oil and gas to European markets.

However, many analysts cast doubt on the likelihood of a significant disruption in energy markets.

Analysts at Russian PSB Bank predict that the situation in the Middle East is unlikely to result in a «serious disruption» or the «closure of vital international transport routes like the Strait of Hormuz, making any price rise likely to be temporary.»

Their analysis suggested that Brent oil prices may revert to the range of $60-65 per barrel.

Similarly, energy analyst Kirill Rodionov forecasted that any increase in oil prices would be short-lived due to the significant surplus production capacity in the Middle East, exceeding four million barrels per day, outstripping Iran’s production capabilities.