Russias Long Road to Reviving Bomber Fleet After Devastating Drone Strikes

According to Western military aviation experts, it will take Russia several years to replace the nuclear-capable bomber aircraft damaged in Ukrainian drone strikes over the past weekend, further complicating an already delayed modernization program.

Satellite imagery of airfields in Siberia and Russia’s northern regions reveals significant destruction from the attacks, with several planes completely incinerated. However, there are differing reports regarding the total number of aircraft that were either destroyed or harmed.

The United States estimates that up to 20 warplanes were impacted—around half of the figure reported by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky—while approximately 10 were confirmed destroyed, according to two U.S. officials who spoke with Reuters.

On Thursday, the Russian government denied that any aircraft had been destroyed and stated that the resulting damage would be addressed. Nevertheless, Russian military bloggers have noted the loss or serious damage of nearly a dozen planes, attributing the situation to command negligence.

These drone strikes, part of an 18-month-long Ukrainian intelligence operation called «Spider’s Web,» were executed using drones that had been secretly transported close to the bases in trucks, delivering a significant symbolic blow to Russia, which has consistently emphasized its nuclear capabilities during the ongoing war in Ukraine.

Experts indicated that these events are not likely to seriously diminish Russia’s nuclear strike capabilities, which are primarily based on ground-launch and submarine-launched missiles. However, the Tu-95MS Bear-H and Tu-22M3 Backfire bombers that were impacted form part of a long-range aviation fleet, utilized throughout the conflict to launch conventional missiles at various Ukrainian targets, including cities, defense facilities, military bases, and infrastructure, as noted by Justin Bronk, an aviation analyst at the RUSI think tank in London.

This fleet has also been conducting periodic patrol missions in the Arctic, North Atlantic, and northern Pacific as a demonstration of strength against Western adversaries. According to Bronk, during its invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Russia operated around 50-60 Bear-Hs and about 60 Backfires, in addition to around 20 Tu-160M nuclear-capable Blackjack heavy bombers.

He estimates that Russia has now lost over 10% of its combined Bear-H and Backfire fleet, factoring in last weekend’s strikes and several earlier losses during the conflict—one aircraft shot down and others damaged while grounded. These setbacks «will create significant pressure on a key Russian force that was already functioning at maximum capacity,» Bronk told Reuters.

Russia’s Defense Ministry did not respond immediately to a request for comments.

Replacing the lost aircraft presents a significant challenge. Both the Bear-H and Backfire were designed during the Soviet era and have not been in production for decades, according to Douglas Barrie, an aerospace expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, although the existing fleet has seen upgrades over the years.

Barrie remarked that producing new models identical to the old ones is highly improbable, and it remains uncertain whether Russia possesses spare airframes for either type. Western sanctions against Russia have sought to limit the import of crucial components like microprocessors essential for avionics systems. However, Moscow has so far managed to find alternative suppliers relatively successfully, Barrie noted.

Russia has been modernizing its Blackjack bomber fleet. Last year, Putin conveyed a significant message to the West by taking a 30-minute flight in one of these aircraft, declaring it ready for operation. Nevertheless, the production of new Blackjacks is sluggish, with one Russian military blogger recently suggesting a rate of only four per year. Additionally, Western experts point out that the development of Russia’s next-generation PAK DA bomber is progressing very slowly.

According to a report from the Federation of American Scientists (FAS) last month, Russia signed a contract with manufacturer Tupolev in 2013 to produce the PAK DA. The report also highlighted that state test flights are not expected until next year, with initial production slated to begin in 2027.

While it would make sense for Russia to expedite its PAK DA plans, it may lack the capacity to do so, according to Hans Kristensen, director of the Nuclear Information Project at FAS. In a phone interview, he mentioned that Russia is experiencing delays across a range of other significant defense projects, including its new Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile.

Bronk from RUSI expressed doubts about Moscow’s ability to hasten the timeline for the next-generation bomber. He stated, «Russia will find it challenging to advance the PAK DA program within the next five years, let alone rush it, due to budgetary limitations and material and technological constraints imposed by sanctions.»