Russias Air Reinforcement in Syria Signals Shift in Post-Assad Dynamics

Russia has resumed military flights to its airbase in Syria following a six-month hiatus, signaling a renewed military presence in the country after the downfall of Bashar al-Assad, according to a report by Bloomberg on Thursday that referenced flight tracking information.

An Il-62 transport aircraft and an An-124 heavy cargo plane were recently reported to have arrived at Hmeimim airbase in the coastal region of Latakia, based on data from Flightradar24.

It has been reported that the An-124-100 Ruslan cargo jet made three landings there between last Friday and Wednesday. Additionally, the Il-26M transport aircraft was noted to have flown a route from Libya to Latakia and then to the Moscow area last Sunday.

Bloomberg mentioned that a Kremlin source confirmed the resumption of flights. However, Russia’s Defense and Foreign Ministries, along with Syria’s Information Ministry, have not yet replied to inquiries for comments on this matter.

Since its military intervention in September 2015 on behalf of Assad in the Syrian civil war— which began in 2011—Russia has depended on the Hmeimim and Tartus bases for air and logistical support. Western governments and human rights organizations have accused Russian forces of conducting indiscriminate bombings, resulting in the deaths of thousands of civilians and the destruction of urban areas.

Russia’s access to the Hmeimim airbase and its naval facility in Tartus was brought into question after Assad fled to Moscow last December following the collapse of his regime. Subsequently, Russia granted asylum to the ousted leader.

Despite previous backing for Assad’s opponents, the new leadership in Syria is striving to maintain steady relations with Russia moving forward.

Ahmed al-Sharaa, who has assumed leadership of Syria’s transitional administration, met with President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on October 15 to discuss the status of Russia’s military bases and other issues. Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov also met Syrian Defense Minister Murhaf Abu Qasra on Tuesday.

Maintaining both bases is regarded by Moscow as crucial for supporting operations in the Middle East and Africa, particularly in light of escalating tensions with the West over Russia’s ongoing large-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Sources familiar with the discussions previously informed Bloomberg that they anticipate a reduction in Russia’s military presence in Syria compared to the Assad era.