Russian Stocks Surge Amid Hopes for Ukraine Peace Agreement

The Russian stock market saw an upswing at the beginning of Friday’s trading session, fueled by reports of a new initiative from the Trump administration aimed at resolving the conflict in Ukraine. This development has sparked optimism that representatives from Kyiv and Moscow may soon formalize a peace agreement after nearly four years of hostilities.

At the opening bell, the Moscow Exchange Index (MOEX) surged by 2.4%, reaching 2,691 points, with most key stocks experiencing gains between 3% and 5%.

Leading the surge were Tatneft and Aeroflot, with shares in both companies climbing approximately 4%. Meanwhile, Gazprom, Sberbank, and Lukoil also saw increases of about 3%.

The market rally began on Thursday evening following Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s indication that he was open to “honest” discussions with the United States and Europe regarding a reported peace proposal from the U.S. and Russia, which sources say has the endorsement of President Donald Trump.

This 28-point proposal reportedly calls for significant territorial and military sacrifices from Ukraine and proposes sanctions relief for Russia. Zelensky emphasized that any agreement must ensure a “dignified peace” that honors Ukraine’s sovereignty.

According to Bloomberg, Washington has suggested to Zelensky that he should accept the proposal. The Financial Times reported that U.S. officials anticipate he will sign it “before Thanksgiving” next Thursday, as the White House pushes for an “aggressive” timeline to conclude the war by New Year’s.

Investment banker Yevgeny Kogan pointed out that the Russian market’s robust reaction to this news reflects growing investor confidence, with the MOEX increasing by 8% over the last three days.

Kogan mentioned that if peace negotiations proceed positively, the index could potentially soar to 3,400 points; however, he cautioned that any discussions are likely to be accompanied by volatility.

“This represents a high-risk, high-reward environment, and while the upward trend could persist, market responses will remain sensitive to updates from the negotiations,” he remarked in a Telegram message on Friday morning.

Certain elements of the proposed U.S.-Russian peace agreement are likely to face pushback from Kyiv, particularly those that would require Ukraine to relinquish territory to Russia and significantly downsize its military forces.

Additionally, it remains uncertain whether President Vladimir Putin would agree to release $100 billion in frozen Russian assets aimed at aiding in Ukraine’s reconstruction, as outlined in the proposal.

On the other hand, oil prices fell by 1.5% to $62.42 per barrel, marking a third consecutive day of declines. This drop is associated with concerns regarding oversupply in the global market and possible disruptions that could arise from an end to the conflict in Ukraine.

While the Russian stock market experienced a rally, global stock indices were declining due to increasing worries about an AI bubble. In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell by 2.4% at the market’s close on Friday, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index dropped by approximately 2%.