Russian Stock Market Plummets Amid Trumps Tariffs and Oil Price Crisis

Russia’s stock market experienced its most significant decline in over two years due to the broad-reaching tariffs implemented by U.S. President Donald Trump and a decrease in global oil prices.

Within just two days, the total market capitalization of companies traded on the Moscow Exchange (MOEX) plummeted by 2 trillion rubles (equivalent to $23.7 billion), dropping from 55.04 trillion rubles ($651.8 billion) at the end of Wednesday’s session to 53.02 trillion rubles ($627.9 billion) by the conclusion of trading on Friday, as per exchange statistics.

The MOEX Russia Index, which encompasses 43 of the largest publicly listed companies in Russia, witnessed an 8.05% decline over the week, marking its worst performance since late September 2022 when the markets were shaken by the Kremlin’s announcement of large-scale mobilization for the war in Ukraine.

By the end of trading on Friday, shares in several major companies had seen steep declines: Sberbank dropped by 5.2%, Gazprom by 4.9%, VTB by 6%, Rosneft by 3.9%, and Lukoil by 4.6%. The steel and coal behemoth Mechel saw a decline of more than 7%, while the national airline Aeroflot fell by 4.8%, and gas producer Novatek experienced a 5.4% drop.

“A significant crisis is unfolding right before us,” remarked Yevgeny Kogan, an investment banker and academic at the Higher School of Economics in Moscow.

Analysts from J.P. Morgan have elevated the probability of a global recession to 60% in the wake of Trump’s tariffs.

These tariffs have led to a drop in commodity prices, with Brent crude oil falling by 12% over the past two days to briefly reach $64.06 per barrel — its lowest since April 2021. Copper futures also saw an 11% decline during the same timeframe.

In the U.S., the S&P 500 index experienced a drop of over 10% from Wednesday to Friday. European markets closed down by 4-5% on Friday following China’s response to Trump’s tariffs, which introduced a 34% tariff on all American goods.

The repercussions of a global trade conflict — such as decreased energy prices, rising import costs, and renewed inflationary pressures — would significantly affect Russia, a nation heavily dependent on commodity exports, proclaimed Yelena Kozhukhova, an analyst at Veles Capital in Moscow.

The MOEX has lost 17% of its value since mid-February, with major companies facing double-digit percentage losses: Gazprom down by 30%, Norilsk Nickel by 25%, and Rosneft by 28%.

Russian Urals crude, the primary export blend for the country, is currently trading below $60 per barrel. These prices indicate potential challenges for the state budget and a probable ruble devaluation in the months ahead, according to Kogan.

“Advancements in peace negotiations could alleviate the situation, but that remains uncertain,” he noted.

A visit from Kirill Dmitriev, head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund, to Washington on Thursday did not seem to progress talks aimed at resolving the war in Ukraine.

“President Trump will not engage in endless discussions about negotiations,” stated U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Friday. “We will soon find out — in weeks, not months — whether Russia is genuinely interested in peace.”

However, NATO officials do not observe any signs that Moscow is willing to reach a compromise.

“We see no sign that Russia’s goals in this conflict have altered,” a senior official from the alliance stated during a private briefing on Thursday.