Russia Must Urgently Transition from Western Aircraft as Fleet Aging Accelerates by 2030

Russia is set to replace hundreds of foreign-built civilian aircraft in the next few years, as the lifespan of its Western fleet draws to a close, according to Sergei Chemezov, the CEO of the state-owned defense conglomerate Rostec.

By 2030, at least 200 of the Western aircraft still operated by Russian airlines—now lacking access to maintenance and spare parts due to wartime sanctions—will need to be decommissioned and substituted with domestically manufactured planes, Chemezov informed reporters at the annual meeting of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs.

He noted that the actual number could be even greater, as Rostec has only begun discussions with airlines to evaluate the conditions of their fleets. Chemezov’s comments indicate that nearly 30% of Russia’s passenger planes constructed by Western manufacturers may be out of service within the next five years.

The country’s commercial aviation fleet comprises around 700 jets from Boeing and Airbus, which account for 90% of air travel in Russia. Sanctions have already compelled airlines to retire 58 aircraft, as reported by Dmitry Yadrov, the head of Russia’s aviation authority, Rosaviatsia.

Yadrov stated last week that the number of retired planes was partly due to a rise in aviation incidents following the onset of Western sanctions. According to the independent news site Novaya Gazeta Europe, there were 208 aviation incidents reported in Russia during the first 11 months of 2024, indicating a projected 25% increase compared to the previous year. At least 90 of these incidents involved system failures, such as engine or landing gear issues. Since the beginning of 2025, at least 10 Russian aircraft have experienced in-flight malfunctions and sent out distress signals. Between December 1, 2024, and January 20, 2025, 11 aircraft faced engine failures, including eight from Boeing and Airbus, along with three domestically manufactured Superjets.

Industry insiders told the U.S.-funded RFE/RL news outlet that Russia’s civil aviation sector is unable to carry out routine maintenance checks on its Western-made aircraft, as these processes necessitate direct collaboration with manufacturers, who have severed ties with Russian airlines.

«I do not have precise information regarding the operational lifespan of all Russian aircraft, but for most of them, 2025 will mark the end of their legal operation,” a flight safety expert from Russia shared with RFE/RL on the condition of anonymity, citing the sensitive nature of the matter.

The scarcity of parts will also impact Russia’s domestically assembled Superjets, which depend on Western-made components, including engines, avionics, electrical systems, landing gear, and fuel systems. Currently, Russian airlines operate 150 Sukhoi Superjet 100 aircraft.

In response to the Western sanctions related to the invasion of Ukraine, Russian authorities have outlined an ambitious plan aimed at reviving the nation’s aviation industry. By 2030, they intend to manufacture around 1,000 commercial aircraft, significantly increasing production to levels not witnessed since the Soviet Union—120 planes per year by 2026 and more than 200 annually by 2028.

As part of this strategy, airlines were expected to receive two import-substituted Sukhoi Superjets and three Tupolev Tu-214 jets in 2023, followed by an additional 20 Superjets, seven Tu-214s, six regional MC-21 airliners, and two Ilyushin Il-114-300 turboprops in 2024.

However, in reality, only five aircraft—comprising three Tu-214s and two Il-96-300s—have been produced in the last three years, according to the business daily Kommersant.