Russia Eyes Deployment of 10,000 Additional Troops to Transnistria Amidst Concerns of Electoral Interference

Russia is looking to send an additional 10,000 troops to the breakaway region of Transnistria in Moldova, as reported by Moldova’s Prime Minister Dorin Recean to the Financial Times, referencing intelligence evaluations.

In an interview with the FT released on Wednesday, Recean accused Moscow of meddling in Moldova’s forthcoming parliamentary elections in an effort to place a pro-Kremlin administration in power, which would facilitate the introduction of more Russian troops into Transnistria.

“This represents a significant attempt to destabilize Moldovan democracy,” Recean remarked to the FT. “They aim to reinforce their military presence in the Transnistria region.”

“With 10,000 troops, one can only imagine the influence and pressure they could exert on southwestern Ukraine,” he added. “Moreover, this is in close proximity to Romania, a NATO member.”

Recean indicated that Russia allocated resources equivalent to 1% of Moldova’s GDP for influence operations in 2024, coinciding with a presidential election and a narrowly passed referendum on EU membership.

“We remain very vigilant because their propaganda and communication strategies are highly effective, and they are investing heavily in this,” Recean noted.

“We must simultaneously enhance our defenses and fulfill our objective of EU membership, which is our government’s top priority,” he stated.

Russia has a limited military presence in Transnistria, a narrow area along Moldova’s eastern border controlled by pro-Russian separatists since the early 1990s.

Moldova, a former Soviet republic with a population of 2.5 million, has consistently called for the withdrawal of Russian forces from Transnistria, a demand supported by a 2018 UN resolution that Moscow has disregarded.

Transnistria is landlocked and bordered by Moldova and Ukraine, which means that any significant reinforcement from Russia would likely necessitate a land route—a strategic objective that some Russian military leaders openly discussed during the early phases of the Ukraine invasion.

In February 2024, officials in the Transnistrian capital of Tiraspol requested “protection” from Russia, echoing the language used by Russia-aligned separatists in Ukraine before the invasion in February 2022.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has also warned that Moldova might become “the next Ukraine,” accusing President Maia Sandu of hastily pursuing NATO membership and stating that Russia would ensure its 220,000 nationals residing in Transnistria do not fall victim to “another Western scheme.”

An investigation by the Dossier Center, an investigative organization linked to the Russian opposition, found that early in the Ukraine conflict, the Kremlin directed the Federal Security Service (FSB) to explore possibilities for initiating a “second front” through Transnistria. The Washington Post corroborated similar findings through its own sources.