Putins Reflections on Eternal Life Reveal His Succession Nightmare

The aging autocrats strolled together, guiding a group of foreign leaders to observe a military parade in Beijing.

In an unexpectedly open moment, a hot mic captured President Vladimir Putin and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping as they talked about ways to extend human lifespan.

“Human organs can be continuously transplanted,” was overheard from Putin’s translator. “The longer you live, the younger you can appear, and [immortality] might even be achievable.”

For the Russian president, the subject of mortality touches on perhaps the greatest weakness of the autocratic regime he has built: What happens when he is no longer in control? Will everything crumble?

During the 25 years since his initial election as president, Putin has reshaped the Russian political landscape to reflect his vision.

The ruling pro-Kremlin party, United Russia, holds 315 of the 450 seats in the Duma and dominates most regional positions. Human rights advocates assert that elections are neither free nor fair, and constitutional amendments he implemented in 2020 enable Putin to remain in office until 2036, when he will be 83 years old.

These circumstances lead many experts to believe that Putin would not step down voluntarily. Rather, if he were to die or become incapacitated, a chain reaction of political events could ensue, escaping his influence.

Initially, Russia’s prime minister would assume the presidency. That would place Mikhail Mishustin—who is 59 and has been in office since 2020—in that role temporarily.

According to the Constitution, the Federation Council is required to call for elections to appoint a new president within 14 days.

However, this is where things could get complicated. As far as analysts are aware, Putin has not designated a successor.

“If Vladimir Putin passes away suddenly or after a short illness, there will be immense pressure to prevent a breakdown that could lead to chaos,” stated Julian Waller, a George Washington University professor and a Russia analyst at the CNA think tank.

“Nobody wants a repeat of the 1990s or the Russian Civil War,” he warned.

Such a scenario could lead to many individuals vying for the country’s leadership. Experts believe that Mishustin’s temporary appointment does not ensure his success in future elections, and the electoral process could be utilized to validate a hand-picked replacement.

Yet, a significant contradiction exists within Putin’s inner circle: many of his potential successors are also elderly.

Individuals like Defense Minister Andrei Belousov, former Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev, and Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin have all been mentioned at various times as possible heirs. The youngest among this group is 66.

“The leadership change should have occurred some time ago,” Waller observed. “They missed that opportunity, and now, especially since the war, there has been a rush to rejuvenate the Russian elite.”

Rather than emerging from Putin’s immediate circle, Waller suggested that a successor might arise from a younger generation of officials appointed during the Ukraine conflict.

Candidates like Alexei Dyumin, the 53-year-old Secretary of the State Council and a former bodyguard of Putin, or Dmitry Patrushev, the 47-year-old deputy prime minister for agriculture and son of the former Security Council secretary, could maintain the existing system while being less encumbered by age.

Officials may also try to position someone who is agreeable and adaptable to the wishes of political elites.

“It’s possible that the individual who takes over from Vladimir Putin isn’t the most powerful figure in the political landscape, at least in the immediate aftermath,” Waller said.

There are few historical examples in modern Russia of the kind of disorder that could result from such a leadership transition.

The most recent significant crisis for the Russian regime occurred in 2023, when Wagner mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin staged a military rebellion that brought his forces to the outskirts of Moscow.

Russian authorities were caught unprepared, with minimal public communication throughout the turmoil and uncertainty in their response.

Putin’s death might elicit a similar reaction from the government and the population, according to Margarita Zavadskaya, a political expert at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs.

“His unexpected absence would be a shock, but people are likely to take a wait-and-see approach instead of mobilizing against or in favor of the new leadership, or mourning Putin,” she explained.

In line with past Soviet leaders, Zavadskaya noted that Putin’s death might not be announced right away, allowing time to devise a response.

Factions outside the Kremlin, as well as lower-tier elites, are unlikely to have any significant influence, and the historically divided military would require strong motivation to support any challenger.

While anti-Putin democratic opposition groups would likely attempt to rally those opposed to him, they have largely been exiled and pushed to the margins of political relevance due to the Kremlin’s extensive suppression of civil liberties.

Regardless, Zavadskaya emphasized that the only certainty about a post-Putin Russia is that it “is unlikely to evolve into a democratic regime.”

For his part, Putin seems content that the legacy he is crafting through his war on Ukraine and standoff with the West will grant him a form of immortality.

In a recent press briefing alongside Xi, Putin referenced the “heroic feat” shared by Russia and China in winning World War II and celebrated the emergence of a new world order where, as in the past, their nations remain independent from the West.

He noted that relations between the two nations “have attained the highest level in history,” being self-sufficient and independent from internal political pressures or fleeting global issues.