Putins Oreshnik Missile Strike: A Strategic Message to Europe Amidst Growing Tensions

Russia’s missile strike using the Oreshnik system in Ukraine, close to the EU border, is seen as an attempt to intimidate Kyiv’s Western allies and reflects Vladimir Putin’s dissatisfaction with recent foreign policy challenges, including those in Venezuela, analysts reported on Friday.

Following the announcement of a post-war peacekeeping initiative for Ukraine by European and U.S. negotiators, Russia conducted a strike on an infrastructure facility in Lviv, in western Ukraine, utilizing the Oreshnik nuclear-capable intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM). This incident marks just the second documented combat deployment of this missile.

While Moscow claims the attack was a reaction to a purported drone strike targeting a residence of Putin’s in December, nearly four years after commencing its invasion of Ukraine, analysts argue that the action serves primarily to convey a strong message to Western nations and instill fear among European citizens.

According to Cyrille Bret, a Russia analyst at the Montaigne Institute in Paris, «Vladimir Putin is utilizing this to send signals to the West, as he could have achieved similar operational outcomes without deploying this missile.» He further remarked, «As European nations enhance their air defense systems, this serves as a stark reminder of their susceptibility.»

The Kremlin has described the Oreshnik as a «cutting-edge» weapon capable of hypersonic speeds, targeting locations throughout Europe, and designed to evade interception.

In a communication on Friday, leaders from Britain, France, and Germany condemned Russia’s missile use as «escalatory and unacceptable,» as noted by a UK government spokesperson. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer commented that Russia was relying on «fabricated claims to rationalize the assault,» with Ukraine denying any attack on Putin’s residence.

Lviv’s Mayor, Andriy Sadovy, expressed on Facebook that the strike represents «a new level of threat—not just to Ukraine, but also to the security of Europe.»

First launched against the city of Dnipro in Ukraine in 2024, the Oreshnik missile is named after the Russian term for hazel tree. The selection of a target approximately 70 kilometers (40 miles) from the EU border is seen as particularly significant by analysts.

Etienne Marcuz, an associate fellow at the French think tank Foundation for Strategic Research, stated on X, «This strike is much nearer to EU borders and should be viewed as a message aimed at European nations,» adding that the operation’s effects are «likely more psychological than tactical.»

Some analysts interpret the strike as Putin’s effort to reaffirm his authority after setbacks, including the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro by Washington, the seizure of a Russian-flagged ship in the North Atlantic, and recent protests in Iran that challenge Moscow-aligned regimes.

Mick Ryan, a retired Australian major general and analyst on the Ukraine conflict, described the Oreshnik as «a psychological weapon—part of Putin’s cognitive warfare against Ukraine and the West—rather than one of mass destruction.» He asserted that the missile’s use indicates «a fearful leader lacking confidence and not one anticipating triumph.»

Ryan noted that no amount of posturing could conceal Russia’s diminished ability to influence events or manage military situations regarding its allies beyond its borders.

Emerging markets economist Timothy Ash echoed this sentiment, emphasizing the relatively limited damage caused by the missile strike. «While the Oreshnik is highly effective, it is also extremely costly, making its deployment in Ukraine illogical from a cost-benefit perspective,» he wrote. He suggested that the missile deployment appeared more like a public relations strategy aimed at sending signals to the Trump administration and expressing Russia’s broader discontent with global dynamics.

Although Russia describes the Oreshnik as a hypersonic missile, Western defense experts assert that it is not a groundbreaking weapon. Marcuz stated, «It is very likely NOT a hypersonic missile,» noting that Europe possesses means to intercept IRBMs. He added, «The Oreshnik’s multiple warheads could present challenges, depending on their release timing.»

In December, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, a close ally of Putin, reported that the missile had been stationed in his country, adjacent to NATO’s eastern border.