Putins Contemplations on Life Extension Lay Bare the Perils of His Succession Crisis

Aging autocrats strolled together, guiding a group of international leaders to observe a military celebration in Beijing.

In an unexpectedly revealing moment, a live microphone captured President Vladimir Putin and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping conversing about ways to extend human life.

«Human organs can be transplanted continuously,» the translator for Putin was heard saying. «The longer you live, the younger you become, and [one can] even attain immortality.»

For Putin, the consideration of mortality strikes at the core of a significant weakness in the autocratic regime he has developed: when he is no longer in power, will everything collapse?

Since his initial election as president 25 years ago, Putin has transformed the Russian political landscape to reflect his own vision.

The ruling party, United Russia, controls 315 of the 450 seats in the Duma and holds a predominant share of regional positions. Human rights observers assert that elections lack fairness and freedom, and constitutional amendments he enacted in 2020 allow him to remain president until 2036, by which time he will be 83.

These circumstances lead many analysts to conclude that Putin is unlikely to relinquish power voluntarily. Instead, should the president die or become incapacitated, a chain reaction of political events may unfold beyond his control.

The prime minister would temporarily assume the presidency, making Mikhail Mishustin—who is 59 and has served in this role since 2020—the country’s leader, albeit briefly.

Under Russian law, the Federation Council must call for elections to appoint a new president within two weeks.

This is where the situation could become complex. To date, it appears that Putin has not designated a successor.

“If Vladimir Putin were to pass away suddenly or with a short notice of illness, a considerable amount of pressure would mount to avoid mismanaging the situation and triggering a Time of Troubles,” said Julian Waller, a professor at George Washington University and researcher on Russia at the CNA think tank.

“Everyone wants to avoid a repeat of the 1990s and the Russian Civil War,” he added.

This scenario might see various ambitious individuals vying for control of the government. Experts believe Mishustin’s appointment as president does not guarantee his election, and the voting process could legitimize a chosen successor.

However, there is a key inconsistency within Putin’s close circle: many potential successors are also quite old.

Individuals such as Defense Minister Andrei Belousov, former Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev, and Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin have been mentioned as potential heirs, with the youngest among them being 66 years old.

“The transfer of power should have occurred long ago,” Waller stated. “They missed that opportunity, and now there’s been a rush, especially since the war, to rejuvenate the Russian elite.”

Rather than seeking a successor within his immediate circle, Waller noted that someone younger could emerge from officials appointed during the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.

Individuals like Alexei Dyumin, a 53-year-old State Council secretary and former bodyguard to Putin, or Dmitry Patrushev, the 47-year-old deputy prime minister for agriculture and son of the former Security Council secretary, might sustain the system Putin established while also being less encumbered by their age.

Authorities may also opt for an uncontroversial and adaptable figure who would align with the expectations of political elites.

“It is quite possible that the individual who takes over from Vladimir Putin won’t necessarily be the most influential figure in the political framework during that early phase,” Waller added.

Modern Russia has few examples of the sort of upheaval a leadership transition could trigger.

The latest major crisis the Russian government encountered occurred in 2023 when Wagner mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin launched a failed military rebellion, bringing his troops to the brink of Moscow.

The Russian authorities were caught off guard. Communication during the insurrection was limited, and the leadership seemed uncertain about how to respond.

Putin’s death might elicit a similar reaction from both the authorities and the public, according to Margarita Zavadskaya, a Russian politics expert at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs.

“His sudden absence would be shocking, but it’s likely that people would adopt a wait-and-see approach rather than mobilizing against or in support of the new leadership or commemorating [Putin],” she explained.

Drawing from the tradition of previous Soviet leaders, Zavadskaya suggested that Putin’s death might not be announced immediately to allow time for crafting an appropriate response.

Factions outside the Kremlin and the upper echelons of the elite are unlikely to play a significant role, she continued, and the persistently fragmented military would require strong motivation to back a challenger.

While opposition groups would likely make much noise trying to galvanize anti-Putin sentiment, they have largely been exiled or pushed into political obscurity due to the Kremlin’s extensive crackdown on civil liberties.

In any case, Zavadskaya emphasized that the only certainty regarding a post-Putin Russia is that «it is unlikely to transition into a democratic system.»

Meanwhile, Putin seems content that the legacy he is creating through his conflict with Ukraine and standoff with the West will provide its own form of immortality.

During a recent press conference with Xi, Putin celebrated the shared «heroic feat» of Russia and China in securing victory during World War II, and hailed an evolving world order where, as in the past, their nations are not dependent on the West.

He noted that relations between the two countries “have reached the highest level in history,” emphasizing their self-sufficiency and independence from internal political dynamics or fleeting global agendas.