Moscows Dwindling Influence in Latin America: The Impending Loss of Venezuela as a Key Ally

As the United States increased its military presence in the Caribbean by deploying warships and submarines, and intensified operations against suspected Venezuelan drug trafficking vessels in recent months, President Nicolás Maduro turned to a significant ally: Russia.

In an October television address where he asserted that Venezuelans were determined to «defeat this open conspiracy against our country’s peace and stability,» Maduro allegedly sent a letter to President Vladimir Putin requesting missiles and assistance in repairing Russian-made fighter jets.

Former U.S. officials and regional experts consulted by The Moscow Times indicated that this letter illustrates the desperation of the Venezuelan leader. They suggested, however, that depending on Moscow during a possible confrontation with Washington is unlikely to yield success.

If, as many speculate, President Donald Trump is aiming to oust Maduro, a U.S. victory could mean losing a crucial ally for Moscow in Latin America.

James Story, who served as the U.S. ambassador to Venezuela from 2018 to 2023, noted, «If this situation were to have a broader impact, it would certainly push Russia out of the Western hemisphere.»

With the largest U.S. Navy aircraft carrier now stationed in the Caribbean, some analysts view the prospect of regime change as increasingly likely.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov cautioned this week that such strategies «will not result in anything positive.» Nonetheless, analysts argue that the Kremlin, due to the ongoing strain of the war in Ukraine, has limited capacity or desire to intervene significantly.

«I don’t see the relationship as particularly deep or strategic,» Story stated.

«Russia views Venezuela primarily as a mission of military significance,» he elaborated, using a term that indicates the minimum resources needed to achieve a specific military objective. «It’s a relationship of opportunity that poses challenges for the United States in certain aspects. It diverts our attention from other concerns, and they can engage relatively inexpensively.»

Since his return to office for a second term, Trump has consistently increased pressure on Maduro, a longtime rival he blames for facilitating drug trafficking into the United States.

In August, the U.S. military began sending warships, attack submarines, and aircraft to the Caribbean.

The next month, American forces initiated operations targeting suspected drug-smuggling vessels, a strategy U.S. officials claim is intended to combat narcotics trafficking, yet it has faced backlash after over 70 individuals, many of them Venezuelans, lost their lives in strikes across the Caribbean and the Pacific.

Some analysts believe that Trump’s ultimate goal is regime change in Caracas. In a recent appearance on «60 Minutes,» he seemed to support this notion. When asked if Maduro’s time in office was limited, Trump replied: «I would say yes. I think so, yes.»

The most significant challenge to Maduro’s authority occurred in 2019 when Venezuelan opposition figures contested his re-election. At that time, U.S. officials launched a «maximum pressure» campaign, including sanctions against the oil sector, aimed at undermining the government.

During that turmoil, Russia played a nuanced role in reinforcing Venezuela’s defenses, sending roughly 100 technical advisors to maintain military hardware.

«These Russian advisors generally handled a couple of tasks. They primarily focused on servicing the Sukhoi fighter jets and attack helicopters,» Story reported. «They provided operational and maintenance support for the surface-to-air missile systems.»

Until recently, there were scant signs that Venezuela had sought military aid from Moscow again.

Then the letter emerged.

First reported by The Washington Post in late October, the letter contained requests to Putin for assistance in refurbishing Russian-made Sukhoi Su-30 fighter jets, repairing additional equipment, and acquiring 14 missile systems.

Just days earlier, a Russian military transport plane landed in Caracas, sparking speculation that aid might already be forthcoming.

«If I had to draft a cable about the situation, it would probably begin with: ‘Too little, too late,'» remarked Brian Naranjo, a former U.S. diplomat. «Venezuela is attempting to reinforce its relationship with Russia as a last-ditch effort to find allies and resources.»

Naranjo, who believes some intervention by the Trump administration is feasible, stated that Maduro is «trying to increase political pressure on the Russians to make a decisive move.»

«That’s not a strategy likely to resonate with the Russians,” Naranjo asserted, based on his understanding of the negotiation dynamics between the two nations.

Lavrov seemed to dismiss the report this week, telling Russian journalists that Venezuelan officials «haven’t approached us» for military aid.

However, in many respects, that support may already be in place. A Russian legislator recently claimed that Pantsir-S1 and Buk-M2E missile systems had been dispatched to Venezuela, although The Moscow Times could not independently confirm this information. Apart from the Sukhoi fighter jets, Venezuela’s military depends on Russian long-range S-300 missile systems and, according to Maduro, short-range Igla-S systems.

The catch is that many of these systems may no longer be operational, as indicated by a former U.S. official who spoke to The Moscow Times on condition of anonymity.

«Over the years, Venezuela acquired very advanced anti-aircraft systems [from Russia],» the official remarked. «It is unclear what the current status of these systems is or how well they have been maintained.»

When Russia sent advisers to Venezuela in 2019, their presence symbolized solidarity and might have complicated any consideration of U.S. military intervention at that time, according to Vladimir Rouvinski, director of the Laboratory of Politics and International Relations at Icesi University in Cali, Colombia.

Today, Rouvinski sees parallels between Russia’s predicament in Venezuela and its recent loss of another crucial ally.

“The same scenario unfolded for Assad in Syria,” he told The Moscow Times. “If Moscow fails to preserve the Maduro regime, it would feel like déjà vu.”

He was referring to the 2024 ousting of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Like Maduro, Assad found an ally in Russia when he was shunned by the international community. Assad’s removal undermined Russia’s image as a dependable protector of its beleaguered partners.

If Maduro were to be overthrown and a new government established, Rouvinski suggested that Russia’s reputation would again take a hit.

“The main risk now is the disintegration of what Russia has built over many years in Latin America, specifically its position as a center of global power capable of providing protection,” he explained.

With its military resources stretched thin due to the war in Ukraine, Russia lacks the flexibility it once had to exert influence abroad. While some form of support for Venezuela remains possible, Rouvinski believes it would likely be more symbolic than meaningful.

“I don’t think Russia is willing to go very far to safeguard the Maduro government,” he stated. “Moscow is neither prepared nor capable, realistically, of engaging in this type of involvement.”