Lost in the Crossfire: Kremlins Diminished Influence Amidst Escalating Israel-Iran Tensions

The Kremlin is grappling with how to react to the Israel-Iran conflict, having failed to foresee the escalation of hostilities, which has left it unable to assist a crucial ally, according to four sources within Russia’s foreign policy apparatus who spoke to The Moscow Times.

While it has maintained relationships with both nations, the Kremlin, preoccupied with its own ongoing war in Ukraine, was caught off guard by Israel’s aggressive actions — moves that have raised concerns regarding the stability of Tehran’s leadership, the sources claimed.

Furthermore, they did not anticipate that U.S. President Donald Trump, who positions himself as a «peacemaker,» would yield to pressure from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and refrain from intervening.

The Moscow Times consulted individuals within the Russian government and those close to the Kremlin for insights. All chose to remain anonymous due to the sensitive nature of the discussion.

Israel initiated a series of air strikes targeting critical infrastructure in Iran, including missile defense systems and nuclear facilities, based on perceptions of Iran’s intentions to develop nuclear weapons. This air conflict, now in its second week, has resulted in hundreds of casualties, including high-ranking Iranian military leaders and civilians.

A retired senior Kremlin official, knowledgeable about Russia’s foreign policy, remarked, “We believed in Trump’s unpredictable behavior and his wish to maintain his image as a peacemaker. We thought he might pursue temporary arrangements that would allow Iran to save face without completely halting uranium enrichment and that he would try to avert an Israeli strike.”

A former Russian diplomat disagreed, perceiving the Kremlin’s assessment of the regional situation as flawed. “Israel systematically dismantled hostile powers in neighboring nations, leading to the fall of the regime in Damascus, and subsequently, they [Israel] captured the Golan Heights. It was evident that Iran was next,” he stated.

The Kremlin thought Iran was relatively secure, given Trump’s seeming readiness to negotiate and Iran’s adaptable stance in recent discussions regarding its nuclear program, as noted by an official familiar with internal conversations.

“Iran was open to discussing not an outright halt but a reduction in uranium enrichment,” the official revealed.

Analysts from Russia’s Valdai Discussion Club, close to the Foreign Ministry, were aware of potential threats like Iran’s possible exit from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, coupled with additional sanctions.

However, they considered a direct Israeli military action, much less a change of regime in Iran, to be improbable, sources told The Moscow Times.

“A scenario of that nature was deemed highly unlikely,” a senior Valdai official asserted.

Instead, developments unfolded in the most severe and damaging manner for both Tehran and Moscow.

“Our predictions clearly did not materialize. Yet, there might still be a chance to stabilize the situation,” the retired Kremlin official added.

Despite a desire to back its beleaguered ally, Russia finds itself without the means to act independently, as stated by two sources familiar with the Kremlin’s foreign policy team and the Foreign Ministry.

“We have made significant diplomatic efforts to coax Israel and Iran back to negotiations,” a Russian diplomat commented. “However, all attempts have failed.”

In the week following Israel’s military action against Iran, Moscow has refrained from issuing urgent calls for negotiations.

Though the Foreign Ministry did release a statement critical of the offensive, it did not indicate that Russia would undertake any further actions.

Notably, President Vladimir Putin’s silence reflects his muted reaction during the abrupt fall of Iran and Russia’s shared ally Bashar al-Assad in Syria in December 2024.

Even though a strategic partnership agreement with Iran was signed just two months ago and Tehran supplied drones to Russia amid the Ukraine invasion, Putin withheld comment for several days.

This silence persists despite the ongoing expansion of economic cooperation between Moscow and Tehran, including projects like the North-South Transport Corridor and the construction of a nuclear power plant in Bushehr, with additional projects in consideration.

“If Russia had real leverage to influence the situation, it would have acted decisively, much like in 2015 when its airpower helped shift the tide in Syria and saved Assad’s regime,” a source remarked.

However, three and a half years of conflict in Ukraine and a reduced standing in the Middle East have left the Kremlin with fewer tools to pursue its interests in the region.

Even the recent strategic partnership agreement with Iran lacks any provisions for military support if either side comes under attack.

“There’s little expectation for Moscow to flex its muscles in support of Iran,” Boris Bondarev, a former diplomat at Russia’s UN mission in Geneva, told The Moscow Times.

“Providing military assistance, such as transferring S-400 systems, would be exceedingly complicated. First, it’s uncertain how many of these systems are available or whether they can be allocated without compromising Russia’s own air defense, which is already a growing concern,” Bondarev explained.

“Second, there’s no assurance they wouldn’t be intercepted or destroyed,” he added.

Moreover, Russia lacks the diplomatic power to act alone.

When the Kremlin proposed to mediate between Washington and Jerusalem, Trump dismissed Putin’s offer publicly, directing him to prioritize resolving the Ukraine conflict first.

Furthermore, Moscow has little influence over Israel, a retired senior Kremlin official mentioned. The close ties that once existed have deteriorated following Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine and Israel’s military actions in Gaza after the Hamas attacks on October 7, 2023.

“Relations have not been severed, but Israel perceives our stance as antagonistic. Netanyahu no longer heeds our president. Only Trump seems to have the ability to sway him now,” the former official observed.

Despite this restrained reaction, the Kremlin still seeks to influence the conflict’s outcome. Moscow aims to prevent direct U.S. involvement.

At the same time, Russia is cautiously navigating the situation to avoid alienating Trump, hoping he continues to overlook Russia’s actions in Ukraine.

One strategy Russia is pursuing involves mobilizing support from major Global South nations like China, Brazil, and India to advocate for a peaceful resolution to the nuclear situation, as mentioned by a government official.

“We aim to forge a coalition of countries advocating for a peaceful resolution. It is crucial to persuade our Gulf partners to encourage Washington to exercise restraint,” the official stated.

Nevertheless, another diplomat recognized a significant credibility issue for Russia.

“It will be challenging for us to lead such a coalition while we are entangled in our own conflict,” the diplomat expressed. “Any partner may justly question us: You promote peace and non-violence, so why can’t you resolve your conflict in Ukraine through diplomacy?”

However, some individuals in Moscow believe that the crisis could ultimately benefit Russia, especially regarding Ukraine.

“Both Iran and Ukraine will suffer the most from this,” stated Ruslan Pukhov, director of the Moscow-based Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies. “An additional conflict in the Middle East will not only divert global attention from the special military operation but may also prompt a complete U.S. pivot towards supporting Israel.”

Yet if Moscow does not take concrete actions to defend its ally, its reputation as a global power will endure serious damage both in the Middle East and internationally, argued Nikolay Kozhanov, an expert at Qatar University’s Gulf Studies Center.