Looking Ahead to 2026: Expert Insights on the Future of Russias Regions and Ethnic Republics

Greetings and welcome to *Regions Calling* by The Moscow Times, a newsletter that highlights the diverse regions and ethnic republics of Russia.

The period from Orthodox Christmas on January 7 to Epiphany on January 19 represents the peak of Russia’s 12 Days of Christmas festivities, referred to in Russian as *sviatki*.

In Slavic culture, *sviatki* are linked to folk customs and divination, as individuals attempt to gain insights into the coming year.

In the spirit of the season, our inaugural newsletter for 2026 will focus on future prospects. We invited five experts to share which trends in Russia’s regions and ethnic republics they will be observing this year and if they anticipate any changes from the current wartime status.

Below are their insights.

These interviews have been condensed for brevity and clarity.

**Andras Toth-Czifra, specialist in Russia’s domestic politics and political economy**

I will be monitoring liquidity challenges as they surface in regional and local budgets, the problems they create or intensify, and the financial and political flexibility governors have to address them.

Most regions are entering 2026 with tight budgets and reduced fiscal reserves, yet there will likely be ongoing pressure for social spending. We are already observing these effects in regions like Kemerovo and Irkutsk. Areas heavily reliant on declining industries may experience similar financial strains in 2026.

I will also keep an eye on the municipal administration reform, which has sparked a backlash from both citizens and lower-tier elites. This could have implications for regional political stability ahead of the 2026 Duma elections.

Furthermore, the reform has reduced the number of lower-level administrative roles that returning war veterans could potentially be appointed to from the Kremlin’s perspective, which may create additional tensions.

**Iliuza Mukhamedianova, social researcher from Bashkir**

My focus will be on grassroots movements within the republics rather than official political activities.

Local protests, cultural initiatives, educational programs, and understated activism often go unnoticed by major media outlets, yet they provide valuable insight into societal conditions. In Bashkortostan, this is particularly relevant to the Baymak protests.

Environmental disputes over resource extraction and land utilization are also critical, especially in rural and Indigenous communities. These hotspots often intersect with issues of identity, economic disparity, and political resistance.

I do not foresee rapid or significant positive changes at the institutional level within the political landscape of ethnic republics. Instead, I expect a deterioration of the current situation, heightened repression, and stricter government oversight.

Nevertheless, residents in Russia’s republics are likely to establish new grassroots networks and innovative forms of solidarity. Such changes could lay the groundwork for future transformations in the nation.

**Harold Chambers, specialist in nationalism, conflict, and security in the North Caucasus**

I will be paying close attention to socioeconomic stress points, such as infrastructure failures, inflation, and unemployment, as well as threats posed by extremist groups like the Islamic State and the Maniac Murder Cult, alongside any peaceful or violent forms of resistance.

Key events I will monitor include the official inauguration of the new Putin neighborhood in Grozny and the parliamentary elections in Dagestan, as well as the Duma elections. The year 2026 will also mark five years since the demise of Aslan Byutukayev, the alleged Islamic State leader in Chechnya, which could spur activity from insurgents or government forces.

Two likely factors may contribute to increased instability in the North Caucasus in 2026.

First, the repercussions of the invasion of Ukraine are becoming more pronounced domestically. This encompasses not only the social ramifications of mobilization but also increased actions from Ukraine-aligned groups across the region and ongoing drone strikes.

The second predictable cause is the intensification of the succession struggle in Chechnya. As Ramzan Kadyrov deeply embeds his son Adam within the republic, anti-Kadyrov federal officials may seek ways to undermine his succession strategies.

**Lana Pylaeva, human rights activist and analyst from Komi**

Over the past year, the Russian government has directed greater attention towards Indigenous communities. Vladimir Putin even designated 2026 as the Year of Unity of the Peoples of Russia and introduced two new holidays.

Russia is increasingly attempting to leverage Indigenous populations to advance its geopolitical goals, including improving its image in the Global South as an alternative to Western powers. However, there has been a wave of arrests targeting Indigenous activists recently.

As a result, I will primarily monitor events relating to the infringement of Indigenous rights. I anticipate an escalation of repression and that expressions of Indigenous culture will increasingly be confined to government-approved festivals.

I will also keep track of infrastructure projects vigorously pursued in the Arctic, such as the development of a large nature reserve and a year-round resort in the Northern Urals.

In my home republic of Komi, I will be keeping an eye on potential gold mining at the Chudnoe site, as well as ambitious plans to construct a water pipeline from the Pechora and Northern Dvina rivers to the occupied Donbas, among other matters.

Of course, I will continue to follow local activism in Komi. It brings me joy to see that there are still individuals striving for change.

**Dr. Maria Ochir-Goryaeva, historian and human rights defender from the Oirat (Kalmyk)**

The same issues that concerned me in 2025 will remain at the forefront of my attention in 2026.

With worry and sorrow, I witnessed the passage of new legislation that strips sovereignty from Russia’s republics. The teaching of Indigenous languages and literature in schools is gradually being phased out.

The militarization of both school and preschool education is escalating. As fathers and older brothers lose their lives in a foreign war, our youth are being conditioned for a similar fate.

Nonetheless, I also observed the emergence of new grassroots initiatives aimed at fostering national identity, culture, and language, which is heartening.

The world has ushered in 2026 with a collective readiness for radical changes: either the signing of a peace treaty to conclude this horrific war or an escalation leading to a potential third world war. Both outcomes are plausible.

We face a time that demands resilient leaders. Whichever direction the global situation takes, every Kalmyk and Oirat must endeavor to safeguard our republic and our identity as a people. Our future depends on ordinary citizens, as those in power show little concern for these matters.