Istanbul Talks Revisited: Can Russia and Ukraine Find Common Ground for Peace?

The possibility of direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine to resolve the ongoing conflict has resurfaced following weeks of diplomatic exchanges.

President Vladimir Putin has put forth the idea of reigniting discussions with Ukraine in Istanbul on Thursday, three years after the previous failed attempts at talks in the early stages of the invasion.

This proposal seems to be a reaction to a Western-led call for a 30-day ceasefire that Moscow has yet to accept.

Kremlin aide Yury Ushakov mentioned on Sunday that any new talks in Istanbul should take into account the results of the past negotiations in 2022, while also reflecting the current realities on the ground.

Here are key points to consider leading up to Thursday:

Ukraine’s Position on Negotiations

Ukraine, along with its allies, has urged Russia to commit to a full and unconditional 30-day ceasefire starting on Monday. Although the Kremlin has not responded to this ceasefire request, Ukrainian officials reported over 100 drone strikes by Russia throughout Monday night.

President Volodymyr Zelensky intensified the situation by stating he would be “waiting for Putin in Turkey on Thursday. In person.”

“We are completely open to negotiations — we are ready for any format,” Zelensky declared on Sunday.

This statement indicates a notable change from Zelensky’s earlier position. In the autumn of 2022, he had signed a decree effectively prohibiting negotiations with Putin.

“It is clear that a dialogue is impossible with the current Russian president. He lacks any sense of dignity or honesty. Therefore, we are open to a dialogue with Russia — but only with another Russian leader,” the Ukrainian president stated back in 2022.

Moscow’s Stipulations

Putin suggested the direct negotiations in Istanbul in a late-night announcement on Saturday, shortly after Kyiv and the leaders of France, Germany, Britain, and Poland urged Moscow to accept an unconditional 30-day ceasefire or face additional sanctions.

Putin expressed his commitment to «serious negotiations with Ukraine,» aimed at addressing the underlying causes of the conflict and establishing lasting peace. He claimed that Moscow had never rejected dialogue with Kyiv, accusing the Ukrainian side of halting talks in Istanbul back in March 2022.

He further criticized Ukraine’s Western allies for wanting to «prolong the conflict with Russia» and condemned the European «ultimatums» and «anti-Russian rhetoric.»

What Was Discussed in 2022 Istanbul Talks?

In the initial weeks of the 2022 war, Russian and Ukrainian negotiators engaged in several rounds of direct discussions in Istanbul, but by May, the talks broke down.

In the three years following the Russian invasion, tens of thousands have died and millions have been displaced. Russia currently controls around 20% of Ukraine, including the Crimean peninsula, which it annexed in 2014. The peace negotiations of 2022 resulted in a joint communiqué but ultimately ended without an agreement.

As per the draft 2022 Istanbul Communiqué reviewed by Reuters, Ukraine would agree to maintain permanent neutrality in exchange for international security guarantees from the five permanent members of the UN Security Council and other nations like Belarus, Canada, Germany, Israel, Poland, and Turkey.

Ukraine provisionally accepted non-nuclear neutrality and relinquishing NATO membership in exchange for security guarantees, compelling the U.S. and its allies to intervene militarily in the event of a future Russian invasion. The draft also included provisions aimed at facilitating Ukraine’s potential EU accession, while Russia sought limitations on Ukraine’s military capabilities and the repeal of laws it viewed as discriminatory toward Russian speakers.

Reasons for the Collapse of the 2022 Istanbul Talks

In May 2022, Ukraine announced that talks with Russia had been suspended due to Moscow’s failure to understand the ramifications of the war. By June, Russia confirmed that «everything had stalled,» after Moscow introduced a draft proposal in April that Ukraine did not respond to.

The discovery of mass civilian killings in the Kyiv suburb of Bucha in early April 2022—largely attributed to retreating Russian troops but denied by Moscow as a «provocation”—is viewed as a pivotal moment that disrupted the Istanbul discussions and rendered further negotiations politically untenable for Ukraine.

In a November 2023 interview, David Arakhamia, who represented Ukraine in the 2022 peace discussions, claimed that British Prime Minister Boris Johnson had advised against continuing the negotiations, suggesting that Ukraine should instead «keep fighting.»

Arakhamia also indicated that Ukrainian officials were worried Russia would not honor any agreement and were hesitant to pursue constitutional changes that might jeopardize Ukraine’s aspirations to join NATO—a concern that Zelensky later downplayed.

Zelensky has stated this year that the breakdown of the 2022 talks was due to Russia’s “ultimatums,” which included demands for his resignation and a reduction of Ukraine’s military strength to 50,000 troops.

Conversely, Russia claimed in 2022 that Ukraine was presenting terms for negotiations that were «unrealistic and unsuitable.»

The reporting was also supported by AFP.