IMF Downgrades Russias 2025 Growth Outlook Amidst Global Economic Optimism

On Tuesday, the International Monetary Fund once again revised its economic growth forecast for Russia for 2025, anticipating an increase of merely 0.6%, despite a more optimistic global outlook.

This latest adjustment represents a decline of 0.3 percentage points from the IMF’s earlier prediction of 0.9% GDP growth made in July, marking the second-largest cut among major economies, following Canada. Earlier in April, the IMF had estimated Russia’s annual growth at 1.5% before making subsequent reductions during the summer.

The IMF maintained its growth projections for Russia at 1% for 2026 and 1.1% for 2030. This highlights a significant decrease compared to the expected 4.3% GDP growth in 2024, which was driven by substantial wartime expenditures.

In contrast, Russian officials have a more positive outlook. The Economic Development Ministry forecasts growth of 1% for this year and 1.3% in 2026, with an anticipated acceleration to about 2.5-2.8% later in the decade.

Similarly, the Central Bank predicts GDP growth of 1-2% in 2025, rising to as much as 2.5% by 2028.

Additionally, the IMF has projected that Russia’s inflation rate will climb to 9% this year—more than double the global average forecast of 4.2%—before moderating to 5.2% in 2026. As of early September, annual inflation stood at 8.2%, according to the Russian Central Bank.

On a global scale, the IMF raised its growth forecast for 2025 to 3.2% from the previous estimate of 3% in July, while keeping its 2026 projection steady at 3.1%.