Galaxy Digital снижает прогноз по биткоину до $120K amid market volatility and whale sell-off Translation: Galaxy Digital lowers Bitcoin forecast to $120K amid market volatility and whale sell-off

Analysts from CryptoQuant have projected a potential drop in Bitcoin’s price to $72,000.

Galaxy Digital, an investment firm, has lowered its price target for the leading cryptocurrency by the end of 2025 to $120,000, as stated by the firm’s head of research, Alex Thorn.

Previously, analysts had forecasted a surge to $185,000.

Thorn explained the revised prediction by indicating that digital gold has entered an «era of maturity.» According to him, this phase is characterized by the predominance of institutional inflows and reduced volatility.

The long-term outlook for Bitcoin remains structurally strong, the expert emphasized.

He identified key factors contributing to the correction, including large-scale coin sales by whales—approximately 470,000 BTC valued at $50 billion—and a decrease in retail participation. Thorn believes that they have established strong resistance near critical levels.

“If Bitcoin can maintain the $100,000 threshold, the structural integrity of the bull market, which has lasted almost three years, will remain intact, although the pace of further growth may slow,” he added.

Bitcoin’s prices have also been impacted by capital flowing into other popular sectors— artificial intelligence and gold. The expert explained that the asset failed to become the «main trend» in 2025, as excessive liquidity has limited investors’ attention.

Over the past week, Bitcoin has declined by nearly 5%. At the time of writing, the coin is trading around $103,350, which is 18.2% lower than its all-time high of over $126,000 reached in October.

Previously, a trader using the pseudonym Lourenco VS asserted that there is nothing unusual about the current decline in Bitcoin’s price.

Bitcoin has lost a critical support level confirmed during the bear market of 2022, analysts from CryptoQuant noted.

They pointed out that the leading cryptocurrency has dipped below the 365-day moving average of $102,000. During the current bull phase, this mark has served as the primary support level. Its breach in December 2021 and January 2022 marked one of the last signals indicating the onset of a bear market.

For digital gold, it is crucial to stabilize above $100,000—the price achieved by traders, which has remained a key benchmark. Should it fall below this level again, Bitcoin may head towards the next boundary set at $72,000.

In a valuation based on network value, the support level is estimated to be around $91,000.

“The calculation is based on Metcalfe’s law, which states that the value of a network is proportional to the square of its user base. […] Historically, Bitcoin traded near this level from November 2024 to May 2025, confirming its significance,” analysts stated.

In addition to price levels, investor sentiment also plays a vital role, highlighted contributor MorenoDV from CryptoQuant.

Currently, nearly one in three Bitcoin holders is facing losses, indicating growing stress among buyers. The expert noted that such levels have often coincided with local minima in the past.

The longer prices remain pressured, the greater the emotional strain on participants. Prolonged stress may lead to impulsive actions: long-term holders might start to take profits, while new investors may exit the market as soon as they break even.

MorenoDV pointed out that the sector is currently in a fragile balance “between fear and patience.” If sentiment does not recover, the demand structure could be disrupted.

“But if fear reaches a tipping point and selling pressure subsides, these same levels could form a solid bottom, laying the groundwork for the next accumulation phase,” he concluded.

As a reminder, Bitwise’s Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan referred to Bitcoin’s current sideways movement as a «quiet IPO» moment. In the stock market, this signifies a period of calm for eight to sixteen months, after which prices begin to rise.