Expert Estimates UK Mans Chances of Finding Lost Bitcoin Fortune at 1 in 902 Million

The likelihood of finding a hard drive at a landfill and successfully retrieving data from it is nearly nonexistent. This assessment was made by Mark Hall, a specialist from Business Waste, regarding the search initiative by James Howell, a Brit who lost access to 7,500 BTC (approximately $666 million at current prices).

In 2013, Howell accidentally discarded a hard drive containing the keys to his wallet, which was subsequently taken to the Newport Docksway landfill in Newport along with other waste. Since then, he has made several attempts to recover the device.

In 2021, Howell secured investors and offered $72 million to the town authorities for the search of the hard drive at the landfill. He also developed a plan for the operation using X-ray scanning and artificial intelligence and later decided to employ two Spot robots from Boston Dynamics for the search.

The primary obstacle to Howell’s initiative has been resistance from the municipal government. Officials denied him access to the landfill, citing safety concerns for both the search team and local residents.

In 2023, Howell filed a lawsuit against the city, demanding either the right to search or compensation for the lost bitcoins (valued at over $500 million at the time). The court, however, refused to hear the case.

According to estimates from Business Waste, about 57,592 tons of waste are sent to landfills in the UK annually. Assuming the mass of a hard drive is around 700 grams, this is equivalent to approximately 82 million devices each year. Considering waste accumulated over 11 years, Howell’s chances of success are estimated at 1 in 902 million, or 0.00000011%, as per Hall’s analysis.

“The hard drive has been exposed to the elements, leaching, temperature fluctuations, and has undergone compaction; we are extremely doubtful it can be recovered, so we assess the probability of recovery at 0%,” Hall added.

He emphasized that the device is likely severely damaged, and the excavation process poses significant risks—sharp rusted items and hazardous materials like asbestos can be found among the waste, the structure of the mounds can shift, leading to landslides, and flammable gases and toxic chemicals can be released.

Howell, however, vehemently rejected the expert’s arguments.

“I am absolutely confident that they are not high-level data recovery experts who have previously worked on NASA projects,” he remarked.

The enthusiast stressed that damage to the casing and internal components of the hard drive is irrelevant; what matters is that the metal disk containing the data should still be intact. He noted that a Bitcoin wallet from 2009 takes up about 32 KB, and the key itself is around 3-4 KB.

Such a volume of information can be stored in a single sector on the drive, which increases the likelihood of recovery. Howell added that his team only needs to recover half of the key since the rest can be guessed.

He concluded that when the hard drive was taken to the landfill, compaction was not applied; the waste was merely piled up, leveled, and covered with soil. Furthermore, Howell’s hired specialists managed to narrow the search area to a section containing 100,000 tons of waste out of a total of 1.4 million tons.

“1 in 902 million is a figure that some clown plucked out of their behind—there’s no way he could justify it, even if he tried. […] No one can predict the exact condition of the hard drive. Tell your waste disposal experts that I’ll let them know when we find it; everything else is pure speculation,” Howell countered the statements made by Business Waste.

Hall believes the enthusiast could find more productive uses for his time.

“If Mr. Howell had simply bought more Bitcoins when he realized that the original hard drive was lost, he could already have made a fortune,” Hall pointed out.

In February 2025, it was announced that officials planned to close and seal the landfill. Howell stated that he intends to buy the land with the help of investors. As a backup plan, he aims to launch a cryptocurrency project dedicated to finding the hard drive, featuring its own NFTs or utility tokens.

Additionally, in November 2024, a popular Brazilian YouTuber lost his seed phrase for a Ledger wallet that contained 4 BTC.