Diplomatic Crisis Erupts: Explaining the Russia-Azerbaijan Standoff Amid Turbulent Events

Relations between Russia and Azerbaijan plunged to a record low this week, as escalating tensions surrounding the deaths of two Azerbaijani men during mass arrests in Russia have transformed into a significant diplomatic crisis.

The Moscow Times outlines the deterioration of Russo-Azerbaijani relations and the factors that might lead to further complications before any resolution.

Disputes between the two nations began to escalate in late December when an Azerbaijan Airlines passenger plane crashed while approaching the North Caucasian city of Grozny. The flight, which had taken off from Baku, went down in western Kazakhstan, resulting in 38 fatalities and injuring 29 others.

An initial report from Kazakh officials seemed to back claims that the aircraft was struck by fire from Russian air defense systems in Grozny, which was under attack by Ukrainian drones at that moment. Images and videos from the accident site captured significant damage to the rear of the plane.

Russian President Vladimir Putin offered an unusual apology during a call with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, but he refrained from accepting any blame. This incident reportedly influenced Aliyev’s choice to forgo attendance at Russia’s May 9 Victory Day commemorations.

In the weeks that followed the crash, Baku implemented several measures perceived as retaliatory, such as shutting down a Moscow-funded cultural center, prohibiting Russian officials from entering Azerbaijan due to “offensive” remarks, and compelling Kremlin-funded media to close their local offices.

The diplomatic breach intensified on June 27 when authorities in Yekaterinburg, located in the Ural Mountains, detained numerous individuals linked to unresolved murders of Azerbaijani business figures from the early 2000s.

During the arrests, two Azerbaijani brothers, identified as Ziyaddin Safarov (55) and Huseyn Safarov (60), died. Authorities claimed one succumbed to a heart attack, while the circumstances surrounding the other’s death are still being examined. However, autopsies conducted in Baku revealed that both had perished due to severe blood loss and shock resulting from extensive physical injuries.

Azerbaijan’s Prosecutor General initiated a criminal probe into what it labeled the “cruel and intentional murder” of the two men, alleging that Russian law enforcement had subjected them to “torture and serious bodily harm” while in custody.

On the Russian side, investigators indicated that six ethnic Azerbaijanis holding Russian citizenship were charged and placed in pre-trial detention after the arrests in Yekaterinburg. Some of these individuals appeared in court with noticeable injuries and were accused of murder and attempted murder.

According to Kommersant, authorities suspect these men are part of a crime syndicate involved in high-profile cases, including the 2001 killing of businessman Yunus Pashayev and the attempted murder of Fehruz Shirinov in 2010, as well as the 2011 homicide of vegetable warehouse owner Ikram Hajiyev.

On June 29, Azerbaijan’s Ministry of Culture declared the cancellation of all cultural events associated with Russia, citing the “extrajudicial killings” of its citizens in the country. The Azerbaijani parliament also retracted from a planned bilateral meeting with lawmakers in Moscow. Additionally, a visit by Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk to Azerbaijan was abruptly called off.

The next day, law enforcement in Baku conducted raids on the offices of Sputnik Azerbaijan, the local branch of the Russian state-funded news outlet. Although Sputnik had officially suspended operations in Azerbaijan earlier in the year following the implementation of a new media law restricting foreign ownership, it continued to publish online content.

Azerbaijan’s Foreign Ministry alleged that the news agency was “illegally operating with external funding.” Several employees were detained, including Sputnik Azerbaijan’s editor-in-chief Igor Kartavykh and deputy editor Evgeny Belousov. Unverified reports in local media suggested potential connections between the two and Russia’s FSB security service.

In response, Russia summoned Azerbaijan’s ambassador to Moscow, accusing Baku of “deliberate actions aimed at undermining bilateral relations” and “interfering in Russia’s domestic affairs.”

On July 1, Azerbaijani police announced the arrest of at least eight Russian nationals believed to be involved in “organized criminal groups” engaged in cybercrime and drug trafficking. Court images showed some of the detained Russians bearing injuries.

The following day, the Kremlin stated that it had noted all details in videos of the arrests and pledged to protect Russian citizens “through diplomatic channels and… all available means.”

Russian media identified those detained as including IT professionals and businesspeople, although the reasons for their presence in Azerbaijan were not clear. Russia’s Embassy in Baku later accused Azerbaijan’s Foreign Ministry of failing to respond to requests for consular access to the detained Russians.

On the same day the arrests occurred in Baku, law enforcement in Yekaterinburg conducted a violent apprehension of the head of a local Azerbaijani diaspora organization, with social media footage showing security personnel shattering the windows of his SUV and forcibly dragging him out.

Local reports indicated that Shakhin Shykhlinsky, the leader of the diaspora group, was questioned as a witness in the ongoing cold case investigation and was subsequently released later that night.