Decline in Russia-China Trade Signals Economic Shifts Ahead in 2025

According to data released on Monday by China’s General Administration of Customs, trade between Russia and China experienced a year-on-year decline of 9.1% in the first half of 2025, reaching a total of $106.48 billion.

During the period from January to June, Chinese exports to Russia fell by 8.4%, totaling $47.16 billion. Imports from Russia also saw a decrease of 9.6%, amounting to $59.32 billion, which resulted in a trade surplus for Russia of $12.16 billion—a reduction of 10.2% compared to the same timeframe last year.

In June, the volume of bilateral trade remained stable at approximately $17.6 billion, with Chinese exports growing by 2.2% to $8.28 billion, while imports from Russia dropped by 2.9% to $9.32 billion.

This trade decrease follows a notable slowdown in the growth of Russia-China commerce, which only increased by 1.9% in 2024 after a significant 26% rise in 2023. Last year, Chinese exports to Russia expanded by 5%, but Russian exports to China saw a mere 1% increase.

China has become an essential economic ally for Russia, especially after the implementation of Western sanctions following Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. With its access to Western energy markets restricted, Russia has increasingly depended on oil sales to China for its revenue.

In contrast, broader trade statistics for China indicated unexpectedly robust growth in June. Exports rose by 5.8% year-on-year, surpassing the 5% increase predicted in a Bloomberg economist survey, while imports rose by 1.1%, exceeding expectations of a 0.3% gain.

Exports reached unprecedented levels in 2024, bolstering China’s faltering economy amidst ongoing issues, including a protracted debt crisis in the property sector, weak domestic consumption, and high youth unemployment.

Reporting by AFP contributed to this article.