CryptoQuant CEO Admits Bitcoin Cycle Theory is No Longer Valid

The CEO of CryptoQuant, Ki Young Ju, has asserted that the theory of Bitcoin cycles is no longer applicable. The expert acknowledged the inaccuracies in his previous forecasts.

He explained that the market previously operated on a straightforward principle: «buy when whales accumulate, sell when retail investors jump in.» Now, however, traditional large investors are divesting their holdings to new long-term investors. Institutional players have taken on a more significant role than was initially anticipated.

“Trading feels pointless right now, as there are more holders than traders,” wrote the head of CryptoQuant.

The expert also offered another apology for his erroneous Bitcoin predictions. In March, Ki Young Ju had declared the end of the bullish market for the first cryptocurrency, disregarding the validity of the cycle theory.

“I sincerely apologize if my analyses have influenced your investment decisions. Moving forward, I will focus more on data rather than outdated patterns,” he noted.

Earlier, CryptoQuant analyst Burak Keshmeci pointed out that a consistent decline in the balances of smaller market participants began in 2023. By 2024, active accumulation from whales commenced, as shown in the accompanying graph.

Not everyone in the crypto community agrees with CryptoQuant’s CEO regarding Bitcoin cycles. According to a trader from Crypto Ex-Insider, this theory hasn’t died but has instead evolved.

“The conflict between retail investors and whales has shifted to a game among long-term titans reshaping the market. This doesn’t signify the end of trading but rather the onset of a slower, larger battle for liquidity,” he stated.

A user named Macrofi observed that the core issue lies in relying on on-chain analysis instead of Bitcoin cycle theories. He mentioned, “As long as you depend on on-chain data analysis, you’ll keep making mistakes and adjusting your theories, since this data is always released with a lag. This means your new conclusions might also turn out to be incorrect.”

**Bitcoin is expected to reach $135,000 by the end of the year**

Meanwhile, the large American bank Citi has shared an updated Bitcoin forecast for the year-end, as reported by CoinDesk. Analysts presented three scenarios.

Experts identified three key factors that will influence the price dynamics of the cryptocurrency: the growth of the user base, macroeconomic conditions, and demand from ETFs.

CryptoQuant analyst who goes by the nickname G a a h pointed out that for the third time in the current cycle, the Bitcoin Cycle Indicator (IBCI) has reached the euphoria zone. However, it only slightly touched the lower boundary—80%. Since the market is still in an upward phase, “it has the potential for new records.”

At the time of writing, digital gold was trading at $115,654. According to CoinGecko, the asset’s price dropped by 2% over the past day. Analysts attributed this decline to the sales from Galaxy Digital.

It’s worth mentioning that James Check, a leading analyst at Glassnode, has expressed skepticism about Bitcoin reaching $200,000 this year.