CIO of Bitwise Declares the End of Bitcoins Four-Year Cycles

Matt Hougan, the Chief Investment Officer of Bitwise, has concluded that the four-year cycles historically associated with Bitcoin are no longer relevant. The forces that have shaped these cycles have diminished under the current conditions.

The expert pointed out several key changes:

Legislative support, such as the recent passing of the GENIUS Act, is paving the way for Wall Street players to enter the market, with Hougan confident that they will invest «billions over the coming years» into cryptocurrency.

He noted that, from a macroeconomic standpoint, the correlation with changes in the interest rates of the Federal Reserve has turned positive, in contrast to the negative correlation observed in 2018 and 2022.

“All of this suggests that the long-term pro-cryptocurrency forces will overwhelm traditional factors of the ‘four-year cycle,’ if they exist at all. The year 2026 looks promising. I could be wrong, but I anticipate significant volatility. I believe this will be more of a ‘sustained, stable boom’ rather than a supercycle,” stated Hougan.

He also highlighted a notable risk to keep an eye on—the surge in the creation of corporate Bitcoin treasuries.

Recently, Ki Young Ju, the founder and CEO of CryptoQuant, acknowledged that the cyclical theory of the first cryptocurrency is no longer valid and apologized for his previous erroneous forecasts.

It is worth mentioning that, according to Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley, the total target volume for Bitcoin encompasses the markets for gold and US Treasury bonds, which are valued at $16 trillion and $30 trillion, respectively.