CIO Bitwise анализирует, как спрос на золото может предсказать рост биткоина Translation: CIO Bitwise analyzes how gold demand can predict Bitcoins rise

The current parabolic increase in gold serves as a blueprint for the next phase of movement for the leading cryptocurrency. This perspective was shared by Matt Hougan, the Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise.

His analysis hinges on the structural differences between the two markets. Since 2022, central banks have emerged as the preeminent buyers of the precious metal. Their consistent purchases have been the primary catalyst for gold’s rally, which saw a 57% surge since the start of 2025.

Bitcoin, on the other hand, lacks comparable demand. The primary support for its price has mostly come from spot ETFs and corporate treasuries. According to Hougan, this fundamental divergence elucidates why gold is rising while the flagship cryptocurrency is consolidating.

Notably, the mechanism operates similarly: when a major stable buyer entered the gold market in 2022, many price-sensitive investors began to secure profits. Their sell-offs initially impeded further gains, and only after exhausting this pool of sellers did the rally commence.

“The logic is straightforward. Market participants sensitive to quotes were selling in response to the rising demand from central banks. Once their selling potential diminished — prices soared,” he explained.

Hougan believes a similar scenario could unfold for Bitcoin as the available supply for sale diminishes.

Since their launch, exchange-traded funds based on digital gold have accumulated over 1.5 million BTC — significantly more than miners generated during the same period. The expert emphasized that this gap should have already propelled the cryptocurrency’s price upward, but it remains constrained by sellers.

If the purchasing activity from ETFs and corporations continues at the current pace, and if the available supply for sale contracts even further, Bitcoin could break away from its narrow range and surge upward, noted the Bitwise investment director.

“Gold has shown the scenario, though not the exact timing,” he concluded.

At the time of writing, the premier cryptocurrency is trading around $108,100, having decreased by 0.4% over the last day.

Previously, CryptoQuant analyst Burak Kesmetchi pointed out a decline in selling pressure in the digital gold market.

CryptoQuant contributor CoinCare analyzed the NVT indicator for Bitcoin, which assesses the relationship between the cryptocurrency’s market capitalization and the transaction volume within its network.

In the previous two market cycles, this metric accurately identified peak price moments, the expert noted.

When the indicator is in negative territory, it suggests that the asset is undervalued relative to network activity — a sign of a healthy foundation for growth. Conversely, a value exceeding 3 indicates an overheated market.

“What’s crucial for bears: we are still far from the peak. Although this current cycle appears longer than previous ones, it is steadily developing,” CoinCare emphasized.

As a reminder, the creator of the S2F model and analyst PlanB stated that fundamental indicators suggest the cryptocurrency market will continue to grow, despite recent corrections.