Central Asian Leaders Present Diverse Agenda at Trump Summit in Washington

This article was originally published by Eurasianet.

Leaders from Central Asia are heading to Washington for a summit with President Donald Trump, bringing with them a broad agenda that surpasses mere trade discussions.

Uzbekistan’s President Shavkat Mirziyoyev was the first of the regional heads of state to arrive in the U.S. capital, touching down on November 4. His itinerary included meetings with American lawmakers and business leaders on November 5, culminating in participation in the White House summit the following day, which embraces the C5+1 format.

It is widely anticipated that Trump will steer the conversations towards his favored topic: enhancing U.S. access to Central Asia’s vast deposits of crucial minerals and rare earth elements. Extensive, private discussions on this matter have been ongoing since the summit was officially announced on October 26. On the same day, two high-ranking U.S. diplomats embarked on a four-day tour of Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. Furthermore, on November 4, Kazakh Energy Minister Erlan Akkezhenov met with Doug Burgum, the U.S. Secretary of the Interior and chair of the National Energy Dominance Council.

Despite the numerous discussions taking place, experts in the region do not foresee any significant breakthroughs on the critical minerals front during the summit on November 6. The «quick, short notice» nature of the event makes it «unlikely to make substantial progress» on such a «sensitive and intricate» issue as the development of the critical minerals sector, predicted Emilbek Dzhuraev, a political scientist from the OSCE Academy in Bishkek.

To foster a cooperative environment, U.S. officials should acknowledge the multi-faceted approach of Central Asian nations towards critical minerals and other trade matters. Dzhuraev asserted that a zero-sum strategy, where the U.S. aims to monopolize access to minerals and rare earths, is impractical, especially given China’s dominant role as a trade partner in the region, which ensures that such an approach would likely backfire.

Trump should convey to Central Asian leaders that building stronger ties with Washington «doesn’t have to mean closing off relationships with other nations,» he added. “[Russian President Vladimir] Putin will also be watching closely … what is said in Washington.”

The limited timeframe for the summit may hinder Central Asian leaders’ ability to bring up various issues they expect the Trump administration to address.

One trade-related topic that regional officials hope will be considered is the Taliban regime in Afghanistan, which obstructs Central Asia’s access to a seaport. Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan have taken the lead in recent efforts to engage with the Taliban, driven not only by the potential for new trading opportunities but also by the understanding that Afghanistan’s cooperation is essential to tackle urgent regional challenges, including the growing scarcity of water resources.

Since the Taliban regained power, the U.S. has not recognized their government, primarily due to its oppressive stance, particularly regarding women’s rights. Central Asian leaders believe that the U.S. and EU should adopt a more flexible stance if they wish to achieve trade goals.

Central Asian leaders “hold the view that engaging with the Taliban is necessary; the complete disengagement and ostracization of Kabul has not led to productive outcomes,” Dzhuraev noted.

Additionally, Central Asian leaders might want to address specific national issues during the summit. Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov is expected to bring up U.S. immigration policies and the non-immigrant visa limitations on Kyrgyz citizens, who can no longer obtain 10-year, multi-entry visas and are now restricted to applying for single-entry, 90-day visas. Turkmen citizens face similar limitations.

Dzhuraev suggested that Japarov may also discuss U.S. sanctions affecting the Kyrgyz banking sector, which both American and British officials have pointed out as aiding Russia in acquiring equipment and technology for its military efforts in Ukraine.

Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev is likely to advocate for unified action to tackle an impending environmental crisis — the decreasing water levels of the Caspian Sea. To capture the Trump administration’s attention, he might frame this issue as a potential threat to trade along the Middle Corridor, a development of interest to U.S. policy, considering that lower water levels make access to significant ports like Aktau more challenging. Kazakh officials also seek assurances from the Trump administration regarding cooperation with the U.S. Congress to lift the Jackson-Vanik trade restrictions on Kazakhstan.

Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan aim to broaden cultural and educational exchanges to support the emergence of a Central Asian managerial class equipped with the necessary skills and knowledge for economic modernization.

One subject unlikely to be broached at the summit is human rights and political freedoms, according to Dzhuraev. Since Trump’s return to power in January, human rights considerations have taken a back seat to trade negotiations in U.S. diplomatic efforts.

Given Trump’s previous stance on human rights issues, it is improbable that he will address an open letter from a Tajik opposition group, the Movement for Reform and Growth. In their letter dated November 5, they appealed to Trump to discuss political repression in Tajikistan with its president, Emomali Rahmon, and to advocate for the release of political prisoners.

“Ignoring this crisis [of political repression in Tajikistan] could lead to destabilization in Central Asia, fostering extremism and resulting in the loss of strategic control in a region where authoritarian forces are actively competing,” the letter warns.