Assessing the Real Risks of Air Travel in Russia: Are Fatalities on the Rise?

If it weren’t for the plume of smoke spiraling above the dense pine forest, this landscape could easily be mistaken for any part of Russia’s expansive and sparsely populated Far East.

Earlier that day, an Antonov An-24 carrying 48 people vanished from radar while approaching Tynda, a town close to the Chinese border in the Amur region. Upon reaching the source of the smoke, investigators found only a twisted mass of metal among the trees, with no survivors in sight.

The disaster on July 24 has led authorities to initiate an investigation into 51 regional airlines to enhance safety measures in an industry they claim is experiencing an increase in fatalities. This week, Angara Airlines, the operator of the ill-fated flight, was grounded.

While sanctions are significantly impacting the domestic air industry, experts and industry analysts indicate that the more substantial issue appears to be a rise in technical incidents rather than fatalities.

Data from the German airline safety firm JACDEC, acquired by The Moscow Times, suggests that the number of air-related fatalities in Russia has not seen a notable increase in recent years.

In fact, the so-called «hull losses,» referring to the complete destruction of an aircraft, have remained fairly stable, while «serious incidents» have only shown a minor uptick. JACDEC’s data encompasses civilian aircraft that weigh over 5.7 tons or have at least 19 seats.

What has been rising are lesser safety infractions, including everything from engine failures and fires to crashes and mistakes during takeoff and landing.

“We are noticing an uptick in technical incidents … which may be linked to a shortage of certified spare parts such as avionics, carbon brakes, or engine turbine components, affecting the reliability of flight schedules,” noted JACDEC CEO Jan-Arwed Richter. “However, this has not resulted in actual crashes.”

The absence of a clear upward trend in air fatalities challenges the official narrative that such incidents are increasing.

Simultaneously, findings by The Moscow Times indicate that sanctions—especially the scarcity of spare parts for aircraft repairs—continue to put pressure on domestic aviation, making air travel appear increasingly less safe.

Experts suggest that these inspections may be an effort to reassure a concerned public and to confirm that the country’s dwindling pool of operational aircraft is airworthy.

When the news of the July 24 crash emerged, attention quickly turned to the aircraft itself, a Soviet-era Antonov-24, which was reported to be 50 years old.

Introduced in the early 1960s, this 52-seat aircraft, with two turboprop engines, exemplifies the outdated passenger vessels that many domestic travelers now depend on in wartime Russia.

«For various regional routes, especially in Siberia, airlines often have no choice but to operate older planes, as numerous remote airports lack the capability to handle newer or larger jets like the Sukhoi Superjet,» explained Oleksandr Laneckij, CEO of the Lithuania-based consulting firm Friendly Avia Support.

Then came poignant stories about the victims; individuals whose lives mirrored those of anyone’s neighbor or family member.

Among them was Leonid Maizel, a 71-year-old surgeon traveling to visit his granddaughter and take her to Khabarovsk, a city in the Far East.

Flight attendant Anastasia Bessmertnaya, 43, was characterized by a colleague as “kind” and “lively.”

Sergei Shiyan was traveling with his wife and their 18-month-old daughter to visit family.

Following the incident, a deputy director at Russia’s transport authority mentioned an uptick in air-related fatalities from 2023 to 2024 as a reason for the comprehensive inspections.

In December, a year-long monitoring process will commence to ensure compliance with regulations, crew training, and equipment performance among 51 regional airlines.

Angara Airlines, which operated the disastrous flight on July 24 and was recently grounded, was the first airline to be scrutinized.

While JACDEC’s data indicates a rise in air-related fatalities from 2022 to the current year, a closer inspection reveals a more nuanced scenario.

In reality, the average number of aircraft-related fatalities in Russia has remained relatively stable over the last decade, hovering around 30 per year. When considering this timeframe, the previous three years do not seem unusual.

JACDEC’s findings identify the period from 2000 to 2010 as the deadliest for Russian aviation, with multiple high-casualty incidents pushing the annual average to 71 deaths.

The cause of the Antonov crash in July remains uncertain, with investigators reportedly examining both pilot error and technical failures, which may be tied to sanctions.

Laneckij commented that the circumstances strongly suggest technical malfunctions drove the incident.

“Sanctions have undoubtedly created conditions that contributed to this tragedy,” he told The Moscow Times. “Without these restrictions, planes of such vintage would likely have been taken out of service long ago.”

Older aircraft are indeed more susceptible to mechanical issues. Since 2022, the surge in both minor and significant incidents has been clear, averaging 66 occurrences annually.

As of October, JACDEC’s data showed over 60 such incidents already recorded in 2025.

Part of the increase may stem from greater transparency in the publicly available sources that JACDEC draws upon, according to Richter, the CEO.

These observations are mirrored by data from Russia’s own regulatory body, the Interstate Aviation Committee (IAC), which monitors aircraft incidents in Russia and neighboring nations. It has reported no significant rise in accidents since the conflict’s onset, with recent years indicating a decline in average injuries and fatalities.

“Analyzing the data from [IAC] for 2023 to 2024 reveals no substantial increase in safety issues across the industry,” stated Steven Harris, a history professor at the University of Mary Washington who researches Russian aviation.

Although the IAC’s scope also includes the Caucasus and Central Asia, Harris indicated that the data remains valuable for understanding the Russian aviation landscape.

However, another consideration is that Russia’s self-reported statistics might not capture the full reality. Last year, the CEO of the flight safety firm RANAVIA claimed the actual number of air incidents could be even higher than officially reported due to a reluctance among airline staff to disclose them.

These days, many aircraft in Russia sit almost abandoned in various locations across the country. Heavily affected by sanctions, the commercial aviation sector has struggled to import essential Western components for over three years, rendering many of these planes unsafe for operation.

In a nation as expansive as Russia, flying often represents the sole means to reach the most remote areas, leading airlines to adapt in an attempt to maintain services.

Some carriers have found ways to keep their fleets updated by smuggling parts into the nation. The government has spent billions of rubles in subsidies to support aircraft manufacturing, assist struggling airlines, and purchase previously leased planes. Furthermore, in 2023, authorities legalized the practice of stripping down aircraft for parts, colloquially referred to as “cannibalization.”

Yet, the state of Russia’s commercial aviation fleet is so critical that officials anticipate the retirement of over 300 airplanes and 200 helicopters in the upcoming years, according to Dmitry Yadrov, head of the Federal Agency for Air Transport. Nearly 30% of Western-made jets might be grounded by 2030.

At a recent meeting of the International Civil Aviation Organization, Russian officials implored their Western counterparts for relief from sanctions affecting aircraft components, framing the matter as a safety issue.

Currently, officials are skeptical about their ability to continue managing the crisis, as noted by Harris, who is authoring a book on Aeroflot, Russia’s flagship airline.

Aside from calming a worried populace, the recent widespread inspections may also aim to ensure that Russia’s diminishing commercial fleet can accommodate rising demand.

“To their credit, they are trying to get ahead of this,” commented Harris.

“However, there may be other factors at play, such as the state’s intention to consolidate the regional airline market and take over smaller operations,” he added. “A stern performance review can serve as a convenient pretext for that.”

Laneckij, the CEO of Friendly Avia Support, concurred that additional motivations could be driving scrutiny in the industry, potentially reshaping its structure in the years ahead.

“Aeroflot, as the dominant carrier in the country, has a vested interest in consolidating the market by overshadowing weaker competitors,” he stated. “Smaller and regional airlines, typically lacking substantial political or financial backing, are particularly vulnerable to such pressures.”