A Controversial U.S. Proposal: The Price Ukraine May Pay to End the War

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is set to engage with high-ranking U.S. military officials in Kyiv on Thursday, following the presentation of a U.S. proposal aimed at concluding the war under terms that would be advantageous to Moscow.

This unexpected initiative from Washington suggests that Ukraine would need to concede territory to Russia and restrict its military capabilities—demands that Kyiv has previously deemed unacceptable and tantamount to surrender, particularly after Russia’s full-scale invasion nearly four years ago.

Here’s what we know so far:

According to a senior source who shared insights with AFP, the plan entails that Ukraine is expected to yield to several of Russia’s principal demands; however, it remains «unclear» what concessions Moscow would offer in return.

Regarding territory, the proposal includes the «recognition of Crimea and other areas occupied by Russian forces,» as stated by the source.

Russian forces currently control approximately one-fifth of Ukraine, a significant portion of which has been devastated by ongoing conflict.

In 2022, Russia annexed four Ukrainian regions—Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson—even without full domination over these areas.

Additionally, Russia annexed Crimea from Ukraine in 2014.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has insisted that Ukraine must completely withdraw its military from Donetsk and Luhansk. He has also proposed freezing the frontline in the southern regions of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, according to Turkey’s foreign minister, who facilitated three rounds of peace discussions earlier this year.

Ukraine has consistently declared it will never acknowledge Russian sovereignty over its territory, but has admitted it may need to pursue diplomatic routes to reclaim it.

Surrendering territory in the Donetsk and Luhansk areas still under Ukrainian control could put the country at risk of further assaults from Russia.

Zelensky recently emphasized, «It is a matter of our country’s survival.»

The plan reportedly requires Ukraine to scale down its military to 400,000 troops, reducing its armed forces by more than half, according to the same source.

Additionally, Kyiv would have to relinquish all long-range weaponry.

This aligns with other demands made by Russia in negotiations held in Istanbul earlier this year, where Moscow called for a decrease in troop numbers, a ban on mobilization, and a cessation of Western weapons supply.

Russia has repeatedly stated its opposition to any NATO forces being present on Ukrainian soil.

Conversely, Ukraine seeks firm security guarantees backed by the West, including the establishment of a European peacekeeping mission to thwart any future Russian invasions.

U.S. media outlet Axios reported that the proposal was formulated during the Trump administration in secret coordination with Russia.

Many aspects of the proposal mirror Moscow’s aspirations for the conflict’s resolution.

According to the senior source, «It appears that the Russians proposed this to the Americans, and they accepted it.»

The source added, «A crucial detail is that it remains unclear whether this is genuinely Trump’s initiative» or «one from his inner circle.»

Since re-entering the White House, President Donald Trump’s stance on the Ukraine conflict has fluctuated significantly.

In recent statements, he has shifted from labeling President Zelensky a «dictator» to urging Ukraine to reclaim all territories seized by Russia and imposing sanctions on Moscow.

There has not yet been an official response to the proposal from Kyiv, while the Kremlin has stated it has no comment on the reports.

Estonian Foreign Minister Kaja Kallas, the EU’s chief diplomat, remarked that any peace agreement must be accepted by both Kyiv and Brussels.

Kallas emphasized, «For any plan to succeed, it must have the endorsement of both Ukrainians and Europeans,» speaking to reporters ahead of an EU foreign ministers’ meeting in Brussels.

«We need to recognize that in this conflict, there is one aggressor and one victim. We have not seen any proposals for concessions from the Russian side,» she added.