Биткоин под давлением: трейдеры прогнозируют падение до $76,000, но долгосрочные держатели надеются на бычий тренд Bitcoin Under Pressure: Traders Predict Drop to $76,000, but Long-term Holders Hope for Bullish Trend

Long-term holders believe the bullish trend is not yet over.

After dipping to $80,000, the price of the leading cryptocurrency has become stuck in an ascending channel, which could take the form of a «bearish flag.» A trader known as Roman has suggested that prices might fall to $76,000.

«Now is the time to drop to $76,000. Bearish divergences and overall dynamics support this forecast,» he wrote, attaching a chart that included price, volume, RSI, and MACD data.

According to an expert, positive macroeconomic factors (including the reduction of the Fed’s interest rate) and the stock market no longer influence digital assets.

«Bitcoin has already surged by 750% from its low of $15,600 in 2022. The bullish rally is over. We should prepare for the next move, after which the price will drop to $50,000,» he added.

Investor Ted Pillows also pointed to the potential formation of a «bearish flag,» drawing parallels to the correction of 2022.

«The similarity between the current cycle and the previous one is truly shocking. If the scenario repeats, we can expect a rise to $100,000 followed by a crash below $70,000,» he wrote.

Options traders are also betting on a decline in digital gold. According to Glassnode, the activity has shifted towards puts even after the Fed meeting.

«The market is stabilizing, but the foundation remains fragile. While the price movement is constructive, liquidity is low, and ETF flows are split—a clear sign of a market searching for direction rather than following it,» noted Timothy Misir, head of the research department at BRN, in a comment to CoinDesk.

At the time of writing, the price of Bitcoin is $92,500, having increased by 3% over the past 24 hours.

However, there are also positive signals—long-term holders believe the bullish trend will persist.

A contributor to CryptoQuant, known as CryptoOnchain, highlighted a rare divergence on Binance. The volume of coins being withdrawn has reached record levels, while the inflow indicator hit a multi-year low.

The 30-day moving average of deposits on Binance has fallen to its lowest level since 2017—around 320 transactions per day.

«This signals a significant shift towards self-custody, despite Bitcoin trading near all-time highs,» commented the expert.

He noted that while the leading cryptocurrency remains within its current range, market participants are not eager to sell.

The present situation creates a classic «supply shock» scenario, CryptoOnchain emphasized.

«When Bitcoin reaches peaks, an influx of coins to exchanges is expected as long-term investors lock in profits. Currently, the situation is different: liquidity is leaving trading platforms, and no new selling volumes are being generated. This anomaly demonstrates unprecedented confidence among investors in the continuation of the bullish trend,» he concluded.

It is worth noting that analysts have ruled out a «Santa Claus rally» for the leading cryptocurrency, stating that the Fed’s cautious stance will postpone new all-time highs at least until spring.