Russias Strategic Advances in Donetsk: October Overview

The Russian military made consistent advances in Ukraine throughout October, concentrating its efforts on the eastern Donetsk region, according to an analysis by the AFP based on data from the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

This area has witnessed the most severe fighting in the nearly four-year conflict, and Ukraine is now striving to retain control of the strategically significant city of Pokrovsk.

The ISW analysis, which collaborates with the Critical Threats Project, indicated that Russia gained control over 461 square kilometers (approximately 286 square miles) from Ukraine during the month.

This advancement aligns with the average monthly territorial gain observed this year, though it marks a decrease from a significant increase in July when Russia captured 634 square kilometers.

Currently, Russia asserts control over 81% of the Donetsk region, which it claims to have integrated into its territory, and it is working to establish complete dominion over the area.

Moscow has insisted that Ukraine withdraw its military from this region, as well as from Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia, as a prerequisite for peace negotiations, a demand that Kyiv has deemed unacceptable.

Multiple rounds of talks have failed to resolve the impasse regarding the conflict’s conclusion.

In total, Russia asserts control, or claims to control, 19.2% of Ukraine, including the Crimean Peninsula annexed in 2014 and sections of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions taken by pro-Russian separatists prior to Russia’s large-scale invasion in 2022.

The vital logistics center of Pokrovsk, which Moscow has been attempting to seize for over a year, has faced renewed assaults in recent weeks.

Ukraine’s 7th Air Assault Brigade announced on Monday that its «operation to liberate Pokrovsk from occupiers is ongoing,» as Kyiv dispatched special forces to the city over the weekend.

Additionally, it reported that Russian troops were encroaching on the outskirts of the adjacent city of Myrnohrad, which has endured intense Russian offensives for more than a year.

«The city’s defense has already received reinforcements,» the brigade stated.

The ISW data further revealed that Russia had taken an additional 150 square kilometers of the Dnipropetrovsk region, situated to the west of Donetsk, during the month.

This area is not among the five Ukrainian regions, including Crimea, that Moscow claims as its own.

At the peak of its invasion in March 2022, Russia controlled 27.7% of Ukraine. Subsequently, Kyiv managed to expel Russian forces from substantial portions of the eastern and southern territories.