Gerasimovs Claims of Encirclement in Eastern Ukraine Under Scrutiny from Experts and Pro-War Followers

Military analysts and pro-war Russian bloggers have rejected claims made by Russia’s highest-ranking general, asserting that Ukrainian troops are encircled near the contested cities of Pokrovsk and Kupiansk, which Moscow has been attempting to seize for several months.

In footage released by the Kremlin on Sunday, Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov informed President Vladimir Putin that as many as 10,000 Ukrainian soldiers were «surrounded» near Kupiansk in the Kharkiv region and Pokrovsk, one of Kyiv’s remaining key defensive positions in the Donetsk region.

«This statement is completely detached from the truth,» commented military expert Ivan Stupak, a former officer in Ukraine’s SBU security service, to The Moscow Times, criticising Gerasimov’s claims.

Even some Russian military correspondents, who typically align with pro-Kremlin narratives, expressed skepticism about Gerasimov’s comments, as noted by Stupak.

In a Telegram post titled “Once again, the enemies have infiltrated Comrade Gerasimov’s encirclement,” the pro-war channel Voyennyy Osvedomitel’ addressed its 620,000 followers by stating there are “no encirclements” at this time.

“It is very unlikely that a large Ukrainian force is still fortified in the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad area. Modern warfare involves small infantry units operating both defensively and offensively,” the post elaborated.

This statement also pertained to Kupiansk, where reports suggested that 18 Ukrainian battalions were encircled.

“Perhaps Gerasimov, in his eagerness to present an exaggerated narrative, is once again getting ahead of reality, hoping that facts will soon align with his portrayal,” the channel concluded.

War correspondent Andrei Filatov characterized Gerasimov’s assertion as “premature,” clarifying that “having logistics under fire control does not equate to encirclement.”

The pro-war channel Svideteli Bayraktar reported that “our troops are present in Pokrovsk, but there are no armored units penetrating the city. Instead, small teams are carefully entering the town and conducting clearance operations.”

The Tactical Medicine Courses Telegram channel, which covers military medical issues and supports the war effort, pointed out that the Russian forces had not completely surrounded Pokrovsk, noting a substantial gap of nearly six kilometers between their flanking units.

The United States-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) stated that it «has not seen evidence to back up Gerasimov’s assertions.»

Michael Kofman, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, also mentioned that “there is no large-scale encirclement of Ukrainian forces in Kupiansk, and many other claims made by Gerasimov are equally unfounded.”

On Tuesday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky labeled the Russian military’s report as “false.”

“Russia was presenting maps already marked with Pokrovsk as captured, asserting that they have reached the Dnipro region and taken control of 90% of eastern Ukraine… In my view, they don’t possess the kind of outcome they can ‘sell’ to the Americans,” Zelensky remarked, referring to the ongoing attempts to facilitate peace talks between Moscow and Washington regarding Ukraine.

The Ukrainian General Staff noted on Sunday that the situation near Pokrovsk remains “complicated,” confirming the presence of 200 Russian personnel there, while stating that Kyiv “repelled four enemy assaults” near Kupiansk.

On Tuesday, it was reported that Russian forces made 79 assault attempts in the Pokrovsk area and nine attacks around Kupiansk the previous day.

According to Stupak, Pokrovsk holds strategic significance for the Russian military’s advancement in the Donetsk region, which Moscow claims ownership of. However, from an infrastructural perspective, taking Pokrovsk and Kupiansk would merely result in another Ukrainian city left devastated by the conflict, similar to previous locales such as Bakhmut and Avdiivka.

“Putin’s and Gerasimov’s assertions of victories on the battlefield are components of the Kremlin’s ongoing cognitive warfare strategy to misleadingly convey an image of inevitable Russian triumph,” the ISW asserted.

Previously, Gerasimov had exaggerated his reports regarding Russia’s summer offensive in August, claiming significant victories across eastern and southern Ukraine. At that time, experts and pro-war bloggers indicated that the reported gains were inflated.

Stupak suggested that the statements from the Russian General Staff are likely “part of the information war, which influences public perception and the will of the people,” aiming to create the illusion that the Ukrainian front is collapsing.