Putins Contemplations on Eternal Life Reveal Urgent Questions on Succession Dynamics

The elderly autocrats strolled alongside each other, leading a group of international leaders to observe a military parade in Beijing.

In a surprisingly frank exchange, a hot microphone picked up President Vladimir Putin and his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, as they discussed ways to extend human life.

«Human organs can be transplanted continuously,» the translator for Putin was heard saying. «The longer you live, the younger you become, and [one can] even attain immortality.»

For the Russian president, the issue of mortality strikes at the core of perhaps the most significant weakness in the authoritarian regime he has built: If he were to lose power, would everything unravel?

In the 25 years since his initial election, Putin has reshaped the Russian political landscape to reflect his own vision.

The dominant pro-Kremlin party, United Russia, controls 315 out of 450 Duma seats and most regional appointments. Human rights monitors assert that elections are neither free nor fair, and constitutional amendments he enacted in 2020 enable Putin to remain in office until 2036, by which time he will be 83 years old.

These circumstances lead many analysts to conclude that Putin would not voluntarily relinquish power. Should the Russian leader die or become incapacitated, a chain of political events could unfold beyond his influence.

Initially, the prime minister would assume the presidency. This would position Mikhail Mishustin, a 59-year-old former tax official who has held the role since 2020, as the temporary leader of the nation.

According to the Constitution, the Federation Council must call for elections to appoint a new president within 14 days.

This is where complications might arise. To date, analysts believe Putin has not designated a successor.

“If Vladimir Putin were to die unexpectedly, or if he had only a week or two of illness, there would be immense pressure to maintain stability and avoid a Time of Troubles,” remarked Julian Waller, a Russia scholar at George Washington University and a researcher at the think tank CNA.

“Nobody wants a repeat of the 90s. No one desires a Russian Civil War,” he noted.

This scenario could lead to a plethora of contenders vying for control of the government. Experts suggest that Mishustin’s provisional presidency does not guarantee his election, and the electoral process could instead serve to legitimize a chosen successor.

However, a striking paradox exists within Putin’s inner circle: many of his potential successors are also elderly.

Individuals like Defense Minister Andrei Belousov, former Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev, and Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin have all been identified by analysts as possible successors, with the youngest among them being 66 years old.

“The transition should have happened sooner,” Waller asserted. “They missed that opportunity, and now there seems to be a rush in recent years—especially since the war—to refresh the leadership of the Russian elite.”

Instead of someone from Putin’s close ranks, Waller suggested a successor might emerge from a younger cohort of officials who were appointed during the Ukrainian conflict.

Figures like Alexei Dyumin, a 53-year-old State Council secretary and former bodyguard of Putin, or Dmitry Patrushev, the 47-year-old deputy prime minister for agriculture and son of the previous Security Council secretary, might maintain the system established by Putin while being less encumbered by age.

Officials might also seek to install someone who is largely uncontroversial and adaptable to the demands of the political elite.

“It’s possible that the person who succeeds Vladimir Putin may not be the most powerful figure in the political hierarchy, at least in the immediate aftermath,” Waller added.

There are few precedents within modern Russia for the kind of chaos that such a leadership transition could incite.

The most recent significant challenge to the Russian regime occurred in 2023 when Wagner mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin attempted a military coup, marching his forces from Rostov-on-Don to the outskirts of Moscow.

The Russian authorities were unprepared, with public communication during the uprising being minimal, and the leadership exhibiting uncertainty in their response.

Putin’s death could elicit a similar reaction from both the authorities and the public, according to Margarita Zavadskaya, a Russian politics expert at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs.

“His sudden absence would be startling, but it’s likely that people would take a wait-and-see approach rather than actively mobilizing against or in support of the new leadership or commemorating [Putin],” she suggested.

In keeping with the practices of Soviet leaders before him, Putin’s death might not be announced immediately, allowing time for a strategy to be formulated, Zavadskaya posited.

Factions outside the Kremlin and within the upper echelons of power are unlikely to exert influence, she continued, and the traditionally divided military would need a compelling incentive to rally behind a challenger.

While democratic opposition groups would likely make considerable noise to mobilize anti-Putin sentiments, they have been largely exiled and pushed into political irrelevance due to the Kremlin’s extensive suppression of civil liberties.

Ultimately, Zavadskaya noted, the only certainty regarding a post-Putin Russia is that it “is unlikely to evolve into a democratic regime.”

For his part, Putin seems content that the legacy he is cultivating through his war in Ukraine and standoff with the West will confer a form of immortality.

In a recent press briefing with Xi, Putin referred to Russia and China’s shared “heroic feat” in winning World War II and celebrated an emerging global order in which their nations are not subordinate to the West.

Relations between the two nations, he remarked, “have reached an all-time high,” emphasizing their self-sufficiency and independence from internal political dynamics or transient global agendas.