Putins Advantage: How the Alaska Summit Sets the Stage for a Strategic Win Against the U.S.

In 2018, during their inaugural official summit in Helsinki, President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump shared a cordial handshake and smiles, both pledging to improve bilateral relations.

Fast forward to today, and the atmosphere surrounding their upcoming meeting in Alaska is dramatically different: the war in Ukraine has entered its fourth year, relations are severely strained, and rhetoric reminiscent of the Cold War is resurfacing.

As the two leaders prepare for talks focused on resolving the Ukrainian conflict, their ambitions diverge significantly.

Experts assert that Putin has already achieved a strategic advantage even before discussions commence.

«This meeting is fundamentally a victory for Putin,» remarked Tinatin Japaridze, an analyst from Eurasia Group. «It positions him more favorably, allowing him to advance his goals effectively.»

«It serves to buy time, postpone any potential new U.S. sanctions, and strengthen military accomplishments on the ground,» she added in her comments to The Moscow Times. «Additionally, Putin is seeking to leverage this opportunity to reestablish direct contact with Trump, potentially driving a wedge between the U.S. and Europe.»

The two leaders are set to meet at 11:30 a.m. local time in Alaska, a territory formerly owned by Russia before its sale to the United States in 1867. This location has been noted for its logistical advantages and symbolic connection to Russia’s history.

According to the White House, it was Putin who proposed the peace discussions, and Trump consented to host the meeting despite growing exasperation over Moscow’s continual refusal to agree to a ceasefire.

While the primary focus will be on Ukraine, other topics will also be addressed, as indicated by Yuri Ushakov, a Kremlin foreign policy adviser.

Accompanying Putin in the Russian delegation are Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, Defense Minister Andrei Belousov, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov, and economic envoy Kirill Dmitriev.

There will also be a «one-on-one» meeting between Trump and Putin, including their interpreters, followed by a joint press conference — the first time U.S. and Russian leaders will hold such an event since the Helsinki summit in 2018.

Japaridze argued that for Trump, this meeting presents a chance to re-establish dialogue with Russia on his terms.

«That’s part of why he wants discussions at the summit to extend beyond just the conflict in Ukraine and ceasefire negotiations,» she told The Moscow Times.

Ruth Deyermond, a senior lecturer in post-Soviet security at King’s College London’s Department of War Studies, pointed out that the optics of the meeting reinforce concerns regarding the Trump administration’s reshaping of U.S. foreign policy.

Welcoming Putin—who is subject to war crimes charges by the International Criminal Court—to a former Russian territory in the U.S. «is a shocking confirmation of Washington’s shift away from its traditional allies and toward Moscow,» Deyermond expressed in an op-ed for The Moscow Times.

«The summit on Friday is an extraordinary signal of the realignment of U.S. foreign policy under Trump and highlights how the administration’s lack of expertise and understanding is granting unprecedented advantages to the Kremlin,» Deyermond stated.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has been excluded from these negotiations despite multiple appeals from Kyiv and European allies that Ukraine should be included in talks shaping its future.

Currently, Moscow occupies approximately 20% of Ukraine’s land and demands formal recognition of these territories as Russian for any peace agreements.

Ahead of the summit, Zelensky reiterated that Ukraine «won’t surrender land to the occupier,» asserting that «any decisions made without Ukraine are also decisions against peace.»

«I informed the president of the United States and all our European partners: ‘Putin is bluffing.’ He is employing pressure on all fronts of the Ukrainian situation before the meeting in Alaska,” Zelensky stated on Wednesday.

Edward Lucas, a senior fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis, remarked that Ukraine’s absence from the discussions leaves them vulnerable.

Inviting Putin to discussions in the U.S., Lucas contended, contradicts the West’s sanctions and isolation strategies that have been in effect since the invasion began.

«We’ve since 2014, especially since 2022, treated Russia like a pariah, aiming to isolate it economically, diplomatically, and politically. Yet now, Putin is being treated like a VIP, which is a huge win for him,» Lucas told The Moscow Times.

Alexander Baunov, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, echoed similar sentiments.

«By agreeing to a face-to-face meeting on Ukraine prior to a ceasefire, Trump has already made a concession, putting himself at a disadvantage compared to Putin,» Baunov commented.

Previously, Trump threatened to impose hefty secondary sanctions on Moscow if it did not agree to a ceasefire by August 8, an ultimatum the Kremlin ignored.

«If Putin rejects a ceasefire, Russian oil trade will be subject to secondary sanctions— sanctions whose effectiveness Trump himself doubts,» Baunov noted.

«Trump will also need to keep supplying Ukraine with weapons, possibly financing from Europe, or even provide long-range missiles—an action that could escalate conflict with Russia without guaranteeing a favorable outcome for Ukraine. Leaving the summit without any agreements would be uncomfortable for Trump, and this could drive him to concede to various demands from Putin,» Baunov suggested.

Trump expressed his belief that Putin aims to «reach a deal» to conclude the war in Ukraine at this summit, mentioning he is planning a follow-up meeting with both Putin and Zelensky.

On Thursday, Putin remarked that «our interaction with the current U.S. administration, which everyone knows has been making what I see as vigorous and sincere efforts to end hostilities, resolve the crisis, and reach agreements, is ongoing.»

«The goal is to create lasting conditions for peace not just between our two nations, but throughout Europe and indeed globally,» Putin stated.

However, experts worry that Ukraine might be coerced into accepting unfavorable terms following a summit in which it was not represented, despite the efforts of European allies.

This week, Zelensky met with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer in London and participated in negotiations in Berlin involving Trump and European leaders, who aimed to persuade Washington to prioritize Ukraine’s interests in its discussions with the Russians.

«I believe that message from European partners was received by Trump, and he attempted to indicate that he would consider Ukraine’s interests in these discussions,» Japaridze noted.

«Although Ukraine is currently left out of direct talks, recent signs—particularly Trump’s stated goal of calling Zelensky right after the summit—suggest that Ukrainian involvement in these negotiations could soon follow,» Japaridze explained.

While Trump «is not going to Alaska specifically to represent Ukrainian interests,» she added, «Zelensky’s absence from the meeting may appear less troubling for Kyiv than it did just a week prior.»

«This raises concerns that the U.S. and Russia may seek a resolution that comes at the expense of Europe or Ukraine, but we will have to see how it unfolds.»