Analyst Predicts Steady Bitcoin Growth to $160,000 Amid Pessimistic Retail Sentiment

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. presented a «conservative» price prediction for Bitcoin, estimating it could rise to $160,000.

According to his observations, during the last three bullish phases, long-term investors (LTH) actively accumulated positions before significant price increases. This pattern was first noticed at the $28,000 mark, where an increase in the proportion of LTH compared to short-term holders (STH) over a 1-2 month period preceded Bitcoin’s surge to $60,000.

A similar accumulation took place again at $60,000 during a consolidation phase, which served as a catalyst for the move towards $100,000.

Adler Jr. commented that with a more cautious forecast using a multiplier of 1.6, the target for the impending growth wave is around $160,000.

In a sideways market, analysts from Santiment have noted a decline in retail investor sentiment.

Conversely, the volume of illiquid Bitcoin supply has risen from 13.9 million BTC to 14.37 million BTC since the beginning of the year, according to Glassnode data.

The circulating supply of Bitcoin is approximately 19,880,000 BTC, meaning the illiquid supply represents about 72%.

This figure indicates the proportion of bitcoins held by participants with low on-chain activity, primarily long-term investors and cold wallet holders. These coins are essentially removed from circulation, reducing the available assets for trading and, consequently, the potential selling pressure.

The trend of increasing illiquid supply often reflects investor confidence in Bitcoin’s future prospects, as well as the rising popularity of the narratives surrounding it as a «safe haven» and censorship-resistant store of value.

Additionally, CoinDesk analyst Omkar Godbole analyzed a pattern known as the «Bull Flag» on the chart, suggesting a potential rise to $140,000 and beyond.