Bitcoin Holds Fragile Level at $105K While Analysts Outline Its Future Trajectory

Despite the recent drop to $100,000, Bitcoin managed to stabilize around $105,000. However, experts consider the current condition of the asset to be precarious.

Dominic John, an analyst at Kronos Research, believes that Bitcoin’s trading metrics indicate its strength, but he warns that «the structure remains fragile.»

«With the fear and greed index at 55 [currently at 62], the market sentiment has balanced in a wait-and-see mode, as traders search for macro triggers or trend confirmations,» he noted.

Kae Lu, CEO of HashKey Eco Labs, also mentioned that digital gold is trading in a «delicate» range near crucial support levels, where uncertain investors may panic and sell off their assets at the hint of any negative news.

Key factors to watch include the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) due on June 11 and the Producer Price Index (PPI) on June 12. The release of this data could indicate the next steps for the Federal Reserve.

According to the FedWatch Tool from CME Group, traders currently expect the interest rate to remain stable at 4.25-4.50% with a 99.9% probability.

«Significant market movements are unlikely to occur before the [Federal Reserve meeting], unless the trade talks in the US either progress or face setbacks,” emphasized Jeff May, COO of BTSE.

CryptoQuant’s technical analyst Carmelo Aleman also questioned whether the optimistic premise for this cycle holds after the conflict between former President Donald Trump and billionaire Elon Musk:

«However, these doubts quickly dissipate when analyzing on-chain metrics, which show clear bullish signals.»

Among the positive indicators, Aleman pointed out the decline in Bitcoin reserves on centralized exchanges. Over the past week, these reserves dropped by 2.88% from 2.43 million BTC to 2.36 million BTC.

The expert believes this trend indicates a reduction in sell pressure and reflects investors’ confidence in Bitcoin as a store of value.

Concurrently, the realized market capitalization of the leading cryptocurrency continues to set records, reaching an all-time high of $934.88 billion.

«This confirms strong buying of Bitcoin and an increased influx of capital, strengthening long-term confidence,» explained Aleman.

Additionally, there is a consistent rise in UTXO, indicating that more coins are being held across various volumes and age ranges of addresses.

According to Aleman, this suggests that:

«These trends are not isolated. Together, they reflect a structural shift in behavior, with long-term confidence outweighing short-term speculation,» he concluded.

Analyst and MN Trading founder Michael van de Poppe observed on Bitcoin’s chart what appears to be preparation for a new peak.

«If the market corrects to $103,000, that would represent a great opportunity to acquire more coins. If it surpasses $106,000, it could pave the way for a new ATH and possibly reach above $120,000 in the third quarter,” he added.

As a reminder, Bitfinex analysts predicted a new Bitcoin peak of $125,000 in July.

However, CryptoQuant speculated on a potential drop of the leading cryptocurrency to the $96,700 level, which corresponds to the average purchase price of short-term investors.