Упущенные надежды: Как ставку на биткоин выше $100 000 сожгли ожидания трейдеров Translation: Missed Hopes: How Traders Expectations Burned the Bet on Bitcoin Above $100,000

As the annual expiration of $28.5 billion worth of contracts on the Deribit exchange approaches, trader optimism is diminishing. A substantial amount of call options totaling $21.7 billion is at risk of becoming worthless.

Investors had anticipated that Bitcoin would remain above $100,000, but the performance in November has not met expectations. According to the platform, only 6% of open positions have a strike price of $92,000 or lower, while most bets have proven to be far removed from the current market price.

There’s also a notable concentration in the range between $100,000 and $125,000.

The maximum «pain point» is at $95,000, the level at which holders would incur the largest losses.

Trader optimism is bolstered by expectations of further easing in U.S. macroeconomic policy. Over the past week, they have increased open interest in call options with strikes ranging from $90,000 to $120,000, set to expire at the end of the year.

Bearish positions are also vulnerable. The strikes of a significant portion of put options are concentrated between $75,000 and $86,000. If Bitcoin remains above $88,000 by expiration, more than half of these contracts, worth $7.7 billion, will become worthless.

As long as the price stays below $94,000, sellers hold the upper hand. At the time of writing, the asset is trading around $87,800.

On December 26, options contracts for the second-largest cryptocurrency, valued at $3.7 billion, will also expire. There are twice as many bets on rising prices compared to those betting on declines.

Most call options are at risk of devaluing, as traders have placed bets on Ethereum rallying to $3,500-$5,000 by the end of the year.

Less than 15% of these bullish bets have been made at a more realistic level—$3,000 or lower—where the maximum pain point is also located.

Meanwhile, bears anticipate a drop in the asset to the $2,000-$2,500 range, where a significant number of put options are concentrated.

In this scenario, the overall balance of power also leans in favor of sellers, as long as the price of Ethereum remains below $3,200. At the time of writing, the coin is trading around $2,900.

It’s worth noting that analysts from Wintermute highlighted the concentration of capital in Bitcoin and Ethereum.