Трейдер: перед значительным ростом биткоина ожидается повторное падение Translation: Trader: Significant drop anticipated before Bitcoins major rise

The first cryptocurrency could reach a historic peak of $125,100 within a week. However, this will be preceded by another significant correction, according to trading veteran Peter Brandt.

He suggests there are two possible scenarios. The first is a «massive shakeout,» followed by a rapid ascent to the all-time high (ATH).

«Alternatively, [the second scenario] could involve a parabolic breakdown, which in the past has consistently resulted in a price drop of 75%. I believe the era of 80% corrections is behind us, but the price may return to the range of $50,000-$60,000,» Brandt stated.

On October 11, the market faced a decline following US President Donald Trump’s announcement of 100% tariffs on Chinese goods. Liquidations on the market exceeded $19 billion, with the price of Bitcoin dropping from $121,000 to $102,000.

At the time of writing, the digital gold is trading at $113,177, having increased by 1% over the past day, according to CoinGecko.

Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, reminded investors to be cautious when using leverage.

«This weekend served as a reminder to be very careful with leverage. Even multipliers above 1.5x are risky,» he said.

The expert described the current volatility as a temporary phenomenon and summarized his outlook for the coming weeks with a single word: «up.»

Other analysts also maintain optimism, citing macroeconomic signals. Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes noted that there is now a buying opportunity in the cryptocurrency market.

He highlighted comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, indicating that the quantitative tightening program «is complete.»

Pav Hundal, lead analyst at Swyftx, believes that economic data currently plays a crucial role for the digital gold.

«US inflation reached 2.9% in August—the highest level since January. At the same time, the US labor market is showing signs of weakness. The Fed has a mandate to ensure full employment, and it seems inevitable that we will see further rate cuts this month. This is a ‘Goldilocks zone’ for Bitcoin,» he explained.

Bitcoin has entered a «speculative phase,» with control shifting toward new major players, as noted by XWIN Research analysts.

The NUPL indicator, which measures the difference between unrealized profits and losses based on the last movement of coins, has reached +0.52. Historically, this zone indicates a transition from optimism to euphoria. In the previous cycles of 2017 and 2021, values above 0.5 signaled speculative activity.

Currently, around 97% of the market supply of coins is in profit.

At the same time, the share of short-term holders (STH) in Bitcoin’s realized capitalization has reached a record 44%. This means that long-term investors (LTH) are locking in profits while their positions are being taken by less experienced market participants—“new whales.”

In previous cycles, the dominance of STH coincided with the final phase of growth. However, experts noted that the current structure is different. Selling pressure is being absorbed by three factors: capital inflows into spot ETFs, increasing liquidity of stablecoins, and institutional involvement.

On-chain data indicates a «mature speculative phase,» fueled by liquidity and a steady influx of capital. Analysts believe that the next important signal will be a decrease in the share of short-term holders, which will indicate a transition to a new accumulation phase led by long-term investors.

It is worth noting that the correlation between the first cryptocurrency and gold has almost reached a historic high.