Слабый интерес институционалов к Ethereum увеличивает риск дальнейшего падения цен Weak Institutional Interest in Ethereum Increases Risk of Further Price Decline

The Coinbase Premium Gap index for Ethereum has dropped to negative territory, indicating weak demand from American institutional investors, as pointed out by the CryptoQuant analyst known as CryptoOnchain.

The 14-day moving average has fallen to -2.285, marking the lowest level since February 2025. The negative price difference between Coinbase and Binance suggests that sellers dominate in the American market. Historically, Coinbase reflects the sentiments of U.S. institutions, while Binance represents the global retail market.

This weakness in the metric poses a significant barrier for price stabilization above $3300. Earlier, Ethereum underwent a correction after reaching an October peak of $4700.

Historically, a sustained rally in the asset has always been accompanied by a positive premium on Coinbase. The current figures indicate a lack of interest from «smart money» in accumulating coins at these levels.

The expert cautioned about the risks of further price declines. Without a return of the indicator to positive territory and the resurgence of demand in the U.S. spot market, the likelihood of breaking resistance remains low. Bearish divergence is observed, as attempts to stabilize the price contradict the outflow of «whale» capital.

Bitcoin began the year with a period of consolidation. According to Glassnode, selling pressure has eased, and the asset has stabilized at the lower bound of the current range.

Experts believe the market is transitioning from «defensive deleveraging» to selective risk-taking. This shift was facilitated by a «cleaning» of positions at the end of 2025.

Key observations from analysts:

Implied volatility is presumed to have found a floor and is starting to rise. The skew metric is normalizing: a decrease in put option premiums and an increase in call interest signal a shift in sentiment from defensive to bullish.

In the $95,000-$104,000 range, dealers are in a «short gamma» position. This structure mechanically amplifies price increases when the market rises. The behavior of participants around the $95,000 strike suggests that bulls are exercising patience and are not rushing to lock in profits.

Glassnode believes that 2026 will start with a healthier market structure and new opportunities for trend expansion.

CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju takes a more cautious stance. He stated that capital inflow into the first cryptocurrency has dried up, and liquidity has shifted into stocks and gold. Nevertheless, the expert does not anticipate a significant downturn, predicting a period of sideways movement.

According to the analyst, liquidity channels have become «too diverse,» making precise timing for entry irrelevant. Long-term institutional holders have broken the old cycle, where whales sold assets to retail investors.

Ju is confident that Strategy will not offload a significant portion of its 673,000 BTC reserves. The analyst considers it unlikely that scenarios from past bearish phases will repeat, where prices fell by 50% or more from peak levels.

«In the coming months, we are looking at a rather dull sideways arrangement. Shorting in hopes of a crash? Good luck with that,» summarized the head of CryptoQuant.

It’s worth recalling that in 2025, the total inflow of funds into cryptocurrency exchange-traded products amounted to $47.2 billion.