Скачивания BitChat увеличиваются на фоне нестабильности в Иране: Ажиотаж на фоне угрозы свержения режима BitChat Downloads Surge Amid Irans Instability: Frenzy over Regime Change Threat

The likelihood of the country’s leader being overthrown has surpassed 50% on Polymarket.

Iranian authorities have restricted internet access amid ongoing large-scale unrest. In response, the community has urged residents to utilize the encrypted [BitChat messenger](https://forklog.com/news/dzhek-dorsi-predstavil-zashifrovannyj-bluetooth-chat), supported by Jack Dorsey.

According to [Chromestats](https://chrome-stats.com/d/com.bitchat.droid/trends), the app saw an increase of 43,000 downloads in just a single day, with a total of 437,900 more over the week. However, the exact portion attributed to users in Iran remains unclear.

Previously, the messenger attracted significant attention in Nepal and Indonesia amid protests against the current governments there.

BitChat does not require an internet connection: each Bluetooth device in the network functions as both a client and a relay, transmitting encrypted messages over a distance of up to 30 meters.

High-speed internet and communication can also be provided by Elon Musk’s Starlink satellites. Users have urged the billionaire to deploy equipment in Iran, which he has previously [done](https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1933727111485026581) during protests in June.

Reports indicate that Musk has responded to such requests.

Users on [Polymarket](https://forklog.com/cryptorium/chto-takoe-polymarket) estimate the probability of overthrowing Ali Khamenei at 55%. This figure has risen by 20% in the past day.

The total betting volume has exceeded $559,000.

This sharp increase has been triggered by widespread protests and a [warning](https://time.com/7344450/iran-protests-latest-economy-trump/) from former U.S. President Donald Trump regarding potential strikes in the case of a violent suppression of the demonstrations. The death toll from the unrest has already [exceeded](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jan/08/iran-plunged-into-internet-blackout-as-protests-over-economy-spread-nationwide) 45 individuals.

Earlier in January, traders assessed the likelihood of Khamenei’s exit at under 40%.

In a related market with a total betting volume of $2.5 million, the situation is as follows:

The community had previously [criticized](https://forklog.com/news/polymarket-stal-eksklyuznim-postavshchikom-dannyh-dlya-the-wall-street-journal) Polymarket for refusing to recognize the U.S. actions in Venezuela as «invasion.» The amount of funds in the disputed contract reached $10.5 million.

Concerns over potential insider trading have sparked further debate. One user reportedly made over $400,000, with their account created just a few days before a U.S. special operation.

The situation has drawn the attention of lawmakers: Congressman Richie Torres has proposed a bill to prohibit insiders from trading on prediction markets.

At the time of writing, the profile of the user [has become unavailable](https://polymarket.com/@0x31a56e9E690c621eD21De08Cb559e9524Cdb8eD9-1766730765984). It is still unclear whether it was intentionally deactivated by the Polymarket team or if the trader deleted the account independently.

In the meantime, Lookonchain analysts have noted suspicious activity surrounding another market where users are estimating the likelihood of U.S. strikes against Iran.

Four new wallets have placed bets on «Yes» with odds of 18%. Experts indicate that no other trading activity has been recorded for these addresses on the platform.

However, users have [discovered](https://x.com/CarOnPolymarket/status/2009088637024260560) inaccuracies in Lookonchain’s data: one of the mentioned accounts does have a history on Polymarket and has previously participated in forecasts related to meme coins.

It is worth recalling that at the end of December, Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley [described](https://forklog.com/news/glava-bitwise-nazval-bitkoin-spaseniem-ot-ekonomicheskogo-kollapsa-v-irane) Bitcoin as a salvation from economic collapse in Iran.