МВФ: Стейблкоины могут создать финансовые риски и угрожать стабильности экономик Translation: IMF: Stablecoins Could Create Financial Risks and Threaten Economic Stability

The USD-pegged «stablecoins» have the potential to expedite the process of dollarization in nations experiencing high inflation, undermining central banks’ control over capital flows. This is highlighted in a report by the IMF.

Experts believe that stablecoins can accelerate the shift away from national currencies among both individuals and businesses in countries with unstable economies.

«Stablecoins could hasten the dollarization process, increase the volatility of capital flows by circumventing established restrictions, and fragment payment systems into isolated segments if their technical interoperability is not guaranteed,» states the document.

The risk is particularly pronounced in nations facing a crisis of confidence in their local financial systems. In such environments, fiat-backed digital assets can swiftly transition from a medium of exchange to a viable alternative to the national currency.

This warning comes during a period of substantial growth in the stablecoin sector. The report’s authors noted that since 2023, the market capitalization of the two largest tokens—USDT and USDC—has tripled, reaching a combined total of $260 billion.

Trading volume surged to $23 trillion in 2024.

The geographical distribution of stablecoin usage is uneven, with Asia leading in transaction volume.

However, in relation to the size of their economies, these assets are most actively utilized in Africa, the Middle East, and Latin America—regions historically vulnerable to dollarization and the replacement of national currencies.

The IMF also acknowledged the positive potential of the technology, indicating that in many developing countries, digital services are advancing faster than traditional banking.

Analysts believe that with effective regulation, stablecoins might:

Nevertheless, these advantages come with macro-financial risks. The primary threat lies in the possibility of a mass exodus from these assets.

User doubts regarding the backing of stablecoins could trigger avalanche-like sell-offs. To meet obligations, companies might be forced to liquidate their assets urgently (often government bonds), which could cause upheaval in global financial markets.

The pseudonymous cross-border nature of stablecoins could also weaken capital flow control, facilitate illicit financing, and degrade the quality of macroeconomic data. The global distribution of holders, often obscured due to non-custodial wallets, complicates crisis monitoring and the development of regulatory responses.

While the regulation of the sector is becoming clearer, it remains inconsistent. The report outlines differences in approaches across Japan, the US, the EU, and the UK in almost all areas—from issuer and reserve requirements to the entry of foreign players.

Such fragmentation fosters regulatory arbitrage, with companies opting for jurisdictions with the most lenient rules. This results in unfair competition and diminishes the effectiveness of sector oversight.

The Fund noted that stablecoins are a «phenomenon that is here to stay.» However, whether they become a source of stability or a risk factor is directly linked to the global community’s ability to establish unified standards.

As a reminder, at the end of November, the Bank for International Settlements warned about financial risks stemming from RWAs.