Львиная доля торгов на Polymarket оказалась фикцией: исследования Колумбийского университета Translation: A Major Portion of Trades on Polymarket Turned Out to Be Fiction: Columbia University Study

In the past three years, around 25% of the total trading volume on the Polymarket prediction platform was associated with transactions that exhibited signs of being fictitious. This is highlighted in a study conducted by Columbia University.

Within the realm of artificial activity, traders repeatedly bought and sold contracts either to themselves or colluded with other accounts.

In July 2024, these transactions accounted for almost 60% of the weekly trading volume on the platform. The trend was most pronounced in the markets for sports events and elections, where in some instances, the rate reached as high as 90%.

*“This activity persisted until the end of April 2025, after which it significantly declined and then rose again to about 20% of the volume at the beginning of October,”* the researchers specified.

They noted that they employed a proprietary algorithm to identify fictitious trading based on wallet behavior, paying close attention to how frequently a user opened and closed positions, particularly in trades with other wallets that exhibited similar patterns.

The authors of the study added that their method allowed them to uncover intricate networks of addresses forming trading cycles or clusters encompassing tens of thousands of accounts. One of the identified groups included over 43,000 wallets that generated nearly $1 million in trading volume. Almost all transactions were for minimal amounts and displayed signs of being artificial.

In several instances, traders quickly routed contracts through dozens of accounts, sometimes holding onto losing positions to create an illusion of legitimate activity. Additional evidence of coordinated actions included the discovered reuse of capital through the transfer of USDC among several wallets.

The researchers pointed out that the majority of this activity did not yield any profit. They considered the likely goals of fictitious trading to be obtaining future rewards such as the anticipated airdrop of the Polymarket token and enhancing rankings on the platform.

According to the authors, the prevalent occurrence of artificial transactions was largely facilitated by the structural features of the platform itself—namely, the lack of user verification and trading fees.

In 2022, Polymarket settled a dispute with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), agreeing to pay a fine of $1.4 million.

In 2024, the platform’s activities caught the attention of U.S. law enforcement, sparked by suspicions of providing services to American users in violation of a ban. Some attributed the scrutiny of Polymarket to allegations of market manipulation and falsification of polling results in favor of Donald Trump before the November elections.

The Justice Department *closed the investigation* into the platform in July 2025, and the CFTC also withdrew its claims.

Following that, Polymarket initiated a process to re-enter the U.S. market by *acquiring a licensed derivatives exchange QCEX for $112 million*.

It’s worth noting that the platform is in talks to secure additional investments *at a valuation of $12-15 billion*, according to Bloomberg.

In October, Polymarket *secured $2 billion* from the Intercontinental Exchange—operator of the New York Stock Exchange.