Крипторынок в упадке: эксперты указывают на дефицит ликвидности и его последствия Translation: Cryptocurrency Market in Decline: Experts Point to Liquidity Shortage and Its Consequences

Analysts have identified potential reasons for the decline of Bitcoin and outlined short-term outlooks.

While other markets are experiencing growth, cryptocurrencies continue to trend sideways due to a complete lack of liquidity. According to Clouted, co-founder of the ETH Strategy protocol, something broke in the sector after the October crash.

*»Since October 10, something serious has been happening. We deserve truthful answers instead of mere speculation and rumors. The crypto market has seen no liquidity or demand since then, only continuous selling,»* he wrote.

The expert emphasized that while quantitative easing has returned, the inflow into digital assets has not. Meanwhile, stock markets and precious metals are enjoying another rally.

In the past day, the S&P 500 index rose nearly 0.64%, and the Nasdaq Composite saw a gain of about 0.52%. Analysts from The Kobeissi Letter pointed out a strong appetite among investors for American stocks.

On December 23, gold reached a historic high of $4,500 per ounce, with the precious metal’s prices soaring by 70% over the past year.

In contrast, the cryptocurrency market is facing a downturn: Bitcoin’s price dropped by 2.7% in the past 24 hours, trading around $87,600, which translates to a year-on-year decrease of 6.3%.

Ethereum has once again fallen below the psychologically significant level of $3,000, with all top 10 coins by market cap currently in the «red zone.»

The total market cap of digital assets has declined by 2.3% over the day, landing at $3.05 trillion.

Clouted pointed out a paradox: the global «debasement trade» is gaining momentum, yet cryptocurrencies—among the primary defensive assets—continue on a downward trajectory.

*»How is it possible for an asset class whose insurance against devaluation is arguably its key value proposition to behave this way? It’s beyond my understanding,»* he noted.

Analysts from QCP also indicated a liquidity depletion, attributing it to traders closing positions ahead of the holidays.

Open interest in Bitcoin futures on major exchanges fell by $3 billion in one night, while Ethereum-based products saw a decrease of about $2 billion.

*»Although the volume of leveraged positions has decreased, the shrinking market depth means the risk of price compression in either direction remains high. Historically, Bitcoin tends to experience fluctuations of 5-7% during the Christmas period,»* the experts added.

CryptoQuant analysts explained that Bitcoin’s correlation with the Nasdaq began to diverge in August, and it stopped following gold around July.

*»Bitcoin no longer moves in unison with tech stocks or safe-haven assets,»* they stated.

They pointed to major players negatively impacting the performance of the digital gold, as they continue to offload assets. Persistent selling from whales has been ongoing since October.

In November, $3.4 billion was withdrawn from Bitcoin spot ETFs, and a further $440 million in early December.

*»Capital is flowing into safe havens like gold and silver, while stocks are rising due to hype around AI companies. Bitcoin finds itself squeezed: on one side, there’s selling pressure, and on the other, a lack of strong demand for risky assets,»* the specialists commented.

Realized losses from major investors have been one of the drivers for Bitcoin’s price drop from $124,000 to $84,000. However, CryptoQuant reported that their selling activity has reached its conclusion.

QCP added that heightened volatility in the crypto market may also be linked to the expiration of options worth $28.5 billion on the Deribit exchange on December 26, a figure that is double that of last year.

Analysis of open interest distribution reveals two key concentration points: strikes at $85,000 and puts at $100,000.

In addition to the influence of options, the price may also be pressured by year-end tax optimization practices. Investors are realizing losses before the end of the fiscal year on December 31 to reduce their obligations, QCP explained.

Pequinyo from Deribit characterized the current structure as indicative of «residual optimism» regarding the traditional «Santa Claus rally,» even if participants’ confidence appears low. The rise in average funding rates, which increased from 0.04% to 0.09%, also suggests this.

According to Deribit, this growth indicates a renewed interest in building long positions with leverage, despite the noticeable deterioration of market depth.

Experts agree that price movements during the Christmas week often have a technical nature. Historically, they tend to correct to average levels in January when liquidity and participant activity return to the market.

Analyst Michael van de Poppe described Bitcoin’s rebound from $90,000 as «not a bad sign for now.» He stated that traders aim to establish $86,000 as support, which would provide «sufficient grounds for continuing the struggle against key resistance areas.»

The expert labeled the cryptocurrency market’s lagging behind other sectors as «temporary.»

It’s worth noting that specialists from VanEck pointed out the capitulation of miners and a potential bottom for Bitcoin.