Давление долгосрочных держателей: Биткоин под угрозой коррекции ниже $100,000 Long-Term Holders Pressure: Bitcoin at Risk of Correction Below $100,000

Long-term investors have ramped up their BTC sales following the loss of a critical support level.

The daily selling volume from long-term holders of the leading cryptocurrency surged from $1 billion in June to $3 billion in October. Experts at Glassnode attribute this selling pressure primarily to this group.

«In contrast to previous phases of significant spending in the current cycle, this distribution pattern has been gradual and stable, rather than abrupt,» they observed.

Investors who purchased Bitcoin at an average price of $93,000 between October 2024 and April 2025 have emerged as the primary sellers of the asset. Daily sales volumes peaked at $648 million near the historic high of $126,000, exceeding the baseline level by more than five times.

Analysts highlighted that over 50% of the selling pressure originated from coin holders aged six to 12 months.

According to experts, the $113,000 level now serves as a dividing line between bearish and bullish sentiments. Bitcoin had briefly reached this mark but could not maintain it.

At the time of writing, the first cryptocurrency is trading around $108,400.

The inability to establish a foothold above $113,000 after six months of resilient trading at high levels indicates a weakening of buying activity, Glassnode noted.

«In the past two weeks, Bitcoin has failed to close a weekly candle above this significant threshold, increasing the risks of further correction,» the experts explained.

If the current trend persists, a pullback to the next substantial support around $88,000—where the realized price for active investors sits—may be possible. Historically, this level has often marked periods of deep corrections.

Future demand dynamics will depend on short-term holders. To quantitatively assess stress in this category, analysts utilized the STH-NUPL metric, which measures the share of unrealized gains or losses in the overall market capitalization.

Historical data shows that extremely low values of this indicator have traditionally coincided with capitulation phases that precede market bottoms.

The current decline in the price of the leading cryptocurrency has driven the STH-NUPL down to -0.05. This suggests relatively moderate losses—by comparison, during average corrections in a bull trend, values typically reach -0.1/-0.2, while in severe bear phases, they drop below -0.2.

«As long as Bitcoin trades in the $107,000-$117,000 range—the zone of concentration for purchases by the largest investors—the market maintains a fragile equilibrium. Although a full-scale capitulation has not yet been observed, time is working against the bulls as market participants’ confidence gradually erodes,» Glassnode emphasized.

It’s worth noting that the analyst known as Crypto Dan has predicted the end of the correction and the onset of an altcoin rally.