Будущее финансов: бессрочные контракты вытеснят Nasdaq с рынка акций Translation: The Future of Finance: Perpetual Contracts to Displace Nasdaq in the Stock Market

By the end of 2026, the pricing of the largest American stocks is expected to transition from traditional exchanges to the on-chain space: the market will begin to focus not on Nasdaq but on the charts of perpetual contracts. This viewpoint was expressed by former BiMEX CEO Arthur Hayes.

The expert outlined three main reasons for this seismic shift:

This forecast illustrates how perpetual stock contracts (perps) are already capturing market attention by providing a more efficient model for traders.

This relatively new instrument is demonstrating significant trading volumes, affirming its demand.

Hayes cites the launch of a perpetual contract on the Nasdaq 100 index on the decentralized exchange Hyperliquid as an example. This tool was created using a permissionless protocol, HIP-3, and its average daily trading volume has already surpassed $100 million.

According to the expert, by the end of next year, all major centralized exchanges (CEX) and decentralized exchanges (DEX) will offer similar products. He believes this will fundamentally change the landscape of the derivatives market. The success of such derivatives is due to their inherent advantages for retail traders.

The value of this new product lies in its focus on retail investors. Arthur Hayes asserts that the success of perpetual contracts is rooted in addressing two key issues for traders: liquidity and leverage.

Since perps have no expiration date, all liquidity is «concentrated in one instrument.» This gives them a distinct advantage over traditional futures, where liquidity is spread across a wide range of contracts with different expiration dates, leading to a fragmented market.

Cryptocurrency exchanges can offer significantly higher leverage (for instance, up to 100x) compared to traditional financial platforms. This is feasible due to a different margin management system utilized in the digital asset industry.

The main distinction lies in the format of the instruments themselves. Cryptocurrencies are «bearer assets,» meaning the owner has direct control and there are no intermediaries that can enforce debt collection.

In contrast to traditional markets, where financial intermediaries like banks must comply with court decisions regarding overdue debts, cryptocurrency exchanges do not have this capability.

In traditional finance, a system of guaranteed settlements operates: clearing houses must possess substantial capital and can take legal action against bankrupt traders. This model reduces risks for participants but simultaneously limits the size of available leverage.

On cryptocurrency exchanges, a system of socialized losses is in place, where a trader’s maximum loss is capped at the initial margin amount. According to Hayes, this is a conscious compromise: participants are willing to accept the risk of partial profit payouts during periods of high volatility in exchange for the ability to trade with higher leverage.

This approach makes derivatives in the crypto market accessible to a broad audience worldwide.

Hayes believes political changes in the United States are easing regulatory barriers that previously hindered the integration of new technologies into the traditional financial system.

He suggests that Donald Trump’s administration will create conditions for direct competition between crypto projects and TradFi giants. According to the expert, this shift relates to the personal experience of the American president: following instances of «debanking» affecting his family, he aims to use cryptocurrencies as a form of leverage against a system that has tried to restrict him.

Hayes predicted that the favorable climate will persist at least until the end of Trump’s presidential term in 2029.

The political course of the United States essentially signals regulators in other countries to implement similar solutions, he noted. As an example, he mentioned the Singapore Exchange (SGX), which he envisages launching similar products right after the new Washington administration normalizes cryptocurrencies as an accepted component of the financial market.

In conclusion, Arthur Hayes returned to his key thesis: the future of financial markets is linked to more flexible, accessible, and efficient instruments like perpetual contracts.

He believes that in the foreseeable future, there will come a time when financial media will start using the ticker for the perpetual contract on the S&P 500 as the primary price benchmark instead of quotes from CME Globex. This would mark a paradigm shift — the definitive relocation of the financial center from Wall Street to the on-chain environment.

Lastly, Hayes is convinced that the traditional four-year cycle of the crypto market is no longer relevant.