Аналитик CryptoQuant предсказывает медвежий тренд для биткоина на основе показателей рынка Translation: CryptoQuant Analyst Predicts Bearish Trend for Bitcoin Based on Market Indicators

An on-chain analyst using the nickname Woominkyu has suggested the possibility of Bitcoin entering a bearish phase. His assessment is grounded in the behavior of the Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator (BCMI).

The decline of the metric to 0.5 in October, which initially seemed like a temporary pause, has evolved into a negative trend. The weakening of Bitcoin, along with falling indicator values, points to a loss of market momentum.

Currently, BCMI sits below the equilibrium level, yet still significantly above historical low zones. In both 2019 and 2023, market reversals occurred within the range of 0.25-0.35.

According to the expert, the current scenario resembles a shift to a downward trend more than a typical correction. For a stable bottom to form, the metric needs to drop to the lows observed in previous cycles.

In December, the volume of funds transferred by large investors to the Binance exchange halved. This was reported by CryptoQuant analyst known as Darkfost.

Based on the expert’s insights, the monthly inflow from whales decreased from $7.88 billion to $3.86 billion within just a few weeks.

As Binance holds a leading position in exchange flows, the drop in activity from major players indicates a weakening of selling pressure. Fewer deposits correspond to a lower risk of immediate asset sales, which positively impacts the short-term market balance.

However, the overall downtrend does not rule out occasional significant transfers. Recently, the analyst recorded a surge in deposits totaling $466 million from holders with balances between 100 and 10,000 BTC, of which over $435 million originated from wallets owning between 1,000 and 10,000 coins.

Darkfost emphasized that monitoring whale activities remains a priority, as large one-time transactions can sharply increase volatility or trigger price corrections.

The number of trades involving Bitcoin perpetual contracts has significantly declined across all major exchanges. Analysts at Alphractal highlighted a shift in traders’ interest toward Ethereum.

From August to November, the activity of leveraged traders reached a historic peak. Up to 80 million trades per day were recorded across 19 platforms, including Hyperliquid and BitMEX.

Currently, this trend has reversed. The seven-day moving average has dropped to 13 million transactions. This sharp decline indicates a substantial reduction in leveraged positions in Bitcoin.

It is worth noting that on December 23, exchange-traded funds based on the two largest cryptocurrencies by market capitalization recorded total outflows of $284.1 million.