Аналитик предостерегает о возможной уязвимости биткоина при падении ниже $80 000 Translation: Analyst Warns of Bitcoins Vulnerability at Risk of Falling Below $80,000

The pricing of the leading cryptocurrency falling below the $80,000 threshold significantly raises the risk of entering a prolonged downtrend, according to the analyst known as Crypto Dan.

The expert observed a capitulation among short-term holders and a shift in market sentiment from optimistic to pessimistic. He noted that current activity resembles local minima observed during previous corrections within the existing bull phase.

Citing the SOPR metric, the analyst identified two potential scenarios for future developments:

Crypto Dan recommended considering both possibilities. In the short term, he anticipates a price rebound.

However, the analyst views a 70% price crash from the historical high as unlikely, a pattern characteristic of previous bear phases.

The ongoing decline in the price of digital gold is attributed to capital outflows from crypto funds and the winding down of treasury strategies, rather than solely to deteriorating market sentiments, according to NYDIG’s head of research, Greg Cipollaro.

The expert emphasized that the factors driving the rise of the leading cryptocurrency in October are now operating in reverse. Previously, an influx of capital into ETFs and corporate treasury demand for digital assets (DAT) played a crucial role.

The situation changed in early October following major liquidations. Inflows to exchange-traded funds reversed to outflows, premiums on shares of bitcoin-holding companies decreased, and the supply of stablecoins started to decline. Cipollaro described this as «classic signs» of losing momentum and liquidity leaving the system.

Once this cycle is disrupted, the market tends to follow a predictable pattern: liquidity contracts, and former positive narratives stop converting into real financial flows.

Spot ETFs based on digital gold, which had become the main success of the current cycle, have turned into a restraining factor. The dynamics of the asset are also influenced by global liquidity changes and macroeconomic news.

During downturns, the dominance of the leading cryptocurrency typically increases. Speculative capital leaves altcoins and returns to the most liquid and established asset in the ecosystem. In early November, the dominance metric exceeded 60%, but as of writing, it has corrected to 58.4%.

Premia on DAT shares relative to NAV have contracted across the entire market spectrum. At the same time, for the first time in several months, the supply of stablecoins has decreased, indicating a direct withdrawal of funds by investors.

Despite the trend change, the corporate bitcoin holders’ sector does not currently show signs of financial stress. The level of leverage remains moderate, and interest obligations are manageable. Many organizations allow issuers to suspend dividend payments if necessary.

Cipollaro believes the long-term scenario for digital gold remains relevant. Institutional adoption is ongoing, and the asset retains its status as a «neutral instrument.» However, in the short term, market dynamics are largely influenced by capital flows and leverage levels.

The analyst advised investors to consider that further movements in the sector may be uneven and emotionally charged, accompanied by sharp price fluctuations.

A decrease in open interest (OI) in bitcoin derivatives may indicate that a price bottom has been reached and a market reversal is imminent, as noted by the analyst under the pseudonym Darkfost.

According to the expert, the market has experienced the sharpest 30-day drop in OI in the current cycle, with the figure reducing by approximately 1.3 million BTC. As of writing, the asset is trading around $85,900, according to CoinGecko.

The recent price declines have triggered a cascade of liquidations. Traders are compelled to reassess their strategies or double down on bets; however, the overall trend indicates a move away from futures trading to mitigate risks.

«Historically, such ‘cleansing’ phases have been necessary to form a solid bottom and prepare the ground for a new bullish trend. Deleveraging, forced closures of excessively optimistic positions, and the exit of speculators help balance the market,» noted Darkfost.

He pointed out that a similarly rapid contraction in open interest was observed during the bear market of 2022.

In the past month, the price of bitcoin has fallen by 23%. The decline from the historical high of $126,000, reached in early October, has exceeded 31.5%.

Analyst and MN Trading founder Michaël van de Poppe described the upcoming week as crucial for digital gold. He stated that a return to the $90,000-96,000 range would significantly increase the chances of setting new price records.

«Fear and panic have peaked in recent days. These present the best opportunities in the market,» the trader added.

It’s worth noting that in November, Bitwise’s Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan stated that bitcoin is close to its bottom, although a temporary decline to the $70,000 level is possible.