Аналитики Glassnode предупреждают о рисках капитуляции держателей биткоина на фоне ненадежной рыночной структуры Translation: Analysts from Glassnode warn of the risks of Bitcoin holder capitulation amid an unreliable market structure.

The overall structure of the market increasingly resembles the first quarter of 2022, which preceded a significant correction, according to analysts at Glassnode.

This similarity is confirmed by the cost basis quantiles model, which monitors the entry price of the largest clusters of coins. Since mid-November, the price of Bitcoin has fallen below the 0.75 quantile (around $96,100), resulting in approximately a quarter of the total cryptocurrency supply being in a loss zone.

This situation has established an extremely unstable equilibrium. On one hand, there is a risk of capitulation among large holders, while on the other hand, there exists a possibility of seller exhaustion and the formation of a bottom.

The market’s stability remains uncertain until the price of digital gold can consolidate above the 0.85 quantile level (approximately $106,200), which has now become a critical resistance line. Until that moment, any negative macroeconomic event could easily disrupt this «fragile balance.»

The proportion of coins in a loss indicates significant pressure on the market. The seven-day moving average of this metric reached 7.1 million BTC last week — the highest level since September 2023. The volume of unrealized losses for investors is currently at its peak for the last two years of the bull market.

The current range of unprofitable supply (5-7 million BTC) is nearly identical to the figures at the beginning of 2022, when the market entered a prolonged sideways movement.

Despite this grim parallel, a key difference is the sustained positive capital inflow. The net change in realized capitalization recorded an increase of $8.69 billion per month.

Although the figure is below the summer peak of $64.3 billion, it explains why the price of the first cryptocurrency finds support at key levels, remaining above $90,000, experts noted.

The activity of long-term investors presents a mixed picture. The SOPR index (30-day average) has decreased but remains above 1 (1.43). This indicates that they are still realizing profits.

However, the profit margin is shrinking, mirroring the dynamics from the start of 2022, which preceded a lengthy sideways trend.

“While the momentum of demand is relatively stronger than at the beginning of 2022, liquidity continues to decline, making it crucial for bulls to hold above the true market average until a new wave of demand arrives,” analysts remarked.

Amid active participation from institutional investors, many members of the crypto community have expressed doubts regarding the relevance of the Bitcoin cycle theory, which suggests that cryptocurrency rises for three years and declines for one.

Analyst Axel Adler maintains that this pattern remains the most reliable.

“We have spent the last three years growing from $16,000 to $125,000 without the shocks of COVID, collapses like Luna/FTX, and yet discussions about the death of the four-year cycle are getting louder. It’s amusing how easily people ignore the most reliable Bitcoin pattern: three years up, one year down, consistently since 2009,” he stated.

According to him, institutional demand remains an important aspect but does not alter the fundamental rhythm of digital gold.

“BlackRock clients don’t buy at any price; they go through the same emotions: FOMO, fear, and capitulation, just like everyone else. The sooner the market accepts this, the less chance there is of missing the next big move,” the expert noted.

Analysts from K33 highlighted three main «fear narratives» that have recently dominated the media landscape. According to the head of research at the company, Vetle Lunde, these concerns are either premature or their risks are exaggerated.

In contrast to short-term fears, experts pointed out several emerging mid-term factors that could provide a strong foundation for growth.

In particular, by February 2026, U.S. regulators are expected to release new rules for 401(k) retirement savings, which could potentially open a $9 trillion market for Bitcoin.

It is also anticipated that Congress will pass legislation on the structure of the crypto market — the CLARITY Act — in the upcoming months. This will accelerate the asset tokenization processes and could legalize the use of the first cryptocurrency as collateral in the banking system.

A shift in the rhetoric from the Federal Reserve may also benefit digital assets. The leading candidate for the new Fed chair is cryptocurrency supporter Kevin Hassett.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $93,100. Over the past day, the asset’s price has risen by 0.6%, and over the week — by 2.1%.

It is worth noting that analysts from Glassnode and Fanara Digital have observed a reduction in the volatility of the first cryptocurrency.