Аналитики нацелены на уровень $92 000 в биткоине после падения цены ниже $104 000 Analysts target $92,000 level for Bitcoin after price drops below $104,000

The price of the leading cryptocurrency has dropped below the $104,000 mark as a result of new buyers capitulating. Crypto analyst Ted Pillows believes the next target might be around $92,000.

“Bitcoin is currently in a state of complete free fall. There’s no strong support until $100,000, indicating that the coin is likely to test this level soon,” he noted.

The expert pointed out an unfilled price gap in CME Group futures around $92,000, slightly below the opening price for trading in 2025. Should Bitcoin lose the $100,000 mark, a correction towards that zone could be expected.

A trader using the pseudonym Daan Crypto Trades warned that the BTC/USD pair has lost crucial support, which has been maintained for several weeks. According to him, the price of the leading cryptocurrency is nearing the bottom of a range, «where the first higher low was established following the downturn on October 11.»

“Widespread selling by whales is observed daily—such volume is challenging to absorb. Stocks are also showing instability amid a strengthening dollar. Overall, the current combination of factors appears unconvincing for growth,” he added.

Trader known as Ardi believes that a test of the October 11 lows around $102,000 is likely. Notably, this level coincides with the 50-week EMA—a key level that the price hasn’t touched in seven months.

10x Research founder Marcus Tilen stated that Bitcoin’s decline has shifted focus to the $100,000-101,000 range, as reported by CoinDesk. If a drop to those levels occurs, a pullback to $85,000 could be possible.

“Although such a scenario would be a last resort, the risks of further decline remain limited as long as Bitcoin holds above the key descending trendline,” the expert explained.

The fall has intensified the pressure on recent Bitcoin buyers, whose investments are now in the loss zone. According to Glassnode, the NUPL indicator for short-term holders has entered the capitulation zone.

“Historically, such periods have created favorable conditions for accumulation by patient market participants,” experts noted.

CryptoQuant analyst Maartuun emphasized that in the past day, short-term holders sold 28,600 BTC worth $2.9 billion at a loss.

According to analyst Axel Adler Jr., the market has experienced “two distinct periods of heightened stress” over the past week.

The first wave occurred from October 28 to 30, when the local Bitcoin stress index (LSI) reached 74-75%, coinciding with a price drop from $113,000 to $106,000. This was accompanied by high realized volatility and aggressive selling.

“A lull ensued on October 31, when the index decreased to 30-40%, and the price recovered to $110,000, but the pause was only temporary before a new wave of sell-offs,” the expert noted.

The second wave began on November 2. The LSI rose to 67-73%, aligning with an increase in bearish signals. Currently, the leading cryptocurrency is trading below the six-hour moving average, with the aggressive selling ratio exceeding 0.51.

“The market is demonstrating structural weakness, characterized by increasing leverage and negative liquidity flow, indicating ongoing pressure from sellers,” Adler Jr. explained.

According to contributors from CryptoQuant’s XWIN Research Japan group, the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, now in its second month, is adding extra pressure on Bitcoin.

“According to the Congressional Budget Office, a reduction in federal spending could lower the annual GDP growth of the U.S. by 1-2% in the fourth quarter. […] This is not merely an escalation of fiscal uncertainty but a liquidity freeze, and the blockchain is starting to respond to this,” the experts pointed out.

Bitcoin reserves on exchanges have increased for the first time in six months. This trend indicates the movement of coins to trading platforms—an emblematic sign of preparing for profit-taking or risk reduction.

“Traditionally, this signals traders’ defensive positioning in anticipation of rising volatility,” added XWIN Research Japan.

Simultaneously, miner reserves have reached mid-year lows, indicating forced coin sales to cover operational costs. These actions are driven by a suspension of government support—such as energy subsidies and tax benefits—amid the ongoing shutdown.

At the same time, a record outflow of stablecoins from exchanges signals a capital shift from risky assets to dollar-based instruments. Analysts noted that liquidity is migrating from open trading platforms to safe-haven assets.

“The combination of three key metrics creates a comprehensive picture: capital is actively fleeing the risk zone, while on-chain liquidity continues to shrink. […] For Bitcoin, this current phase is not just a correction for accumulation but a fundamental test of investor conviction, liquidity base, and the market’s ability to maintain patience amid institutional dysfunction,” concluded XWIN Research Japan.

It’s worth mentioning that trader known as CrypNuevo suggested that Bitcoin may be forming a bottom at the $101,000 level. Sigma Capital CEO Vineet Budki claimed there is a high probability of the leading cryptocurrency falling by 70%.